Thomas: Which NL East disaster should we have seen coming more: the Mets or the Phillies?

Tayler: The easy answer to this question is “the Mets” because the easy answer to any question about which disaster was foreseeable is always “the Mets”. But I want to zag and say the Phillies, largely because the Mets actually tried this offseason, while the Phillies sat around and counted the days until spring training. That’s not to say the Mets had a perfect winter, because they certainly did not. The plan at first base was to hand it to someone in Jorge Polanco who had never played the position before; the plan at second base was Marcus Semien coming off the worst season of his entire career; the plan in center field was “Luis Robert Jr. until he breaks down” (which, for the record, was all of 24 games). But on the other hand, David Stearns went out and added a reliable top-of-the-rotation starter in Freddy Peralta and a good top-of-the-order hitter in Bo Bichette, and even if Devin Williams and Luke Weaver floundered last year in the Bronx, they still represented two of the best relief pitcher options on the market.

The Phillies, on the other hand, re-signed Kyle Schwarber in early December and then settled in for a long winter nap. Granted, re-upping with Schwarber was a good idea no matter the cost, but the rest of the offseason reeked of few ideas and even less enthusiasm to execute them. To replace Nick Castellanos, a dead man walking in Philadelphia since the end of October, the Phillies landed on Adolis Garcia, whose last good season at the plate was 2023. To the bullpen, which was crying out for reinforcements, all the Phillies could come up with was Brad Keller, a bad starter turned unlikely relief ace for the Cubs — not a bad move, but not one you’d associate with a title contender gearing up for another shot. And when the Mets gazumped Bichette out from under his nose, Dave Dombrowski’s comeback was... re-signing J.T. Realmuto, whose offensive output crumbled last year.

Part of the difficult calculus for Dombrowski is that his core is productive but expensive, leaving little financial room to bolster them. But it felt going into the year that the Phillies’ plan for supporting their stars was built more on hope than reality — that Taijuan Walker would turn the clock back, or that Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter would hit the ground running as rookies, or that, most crucially of all, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott would take the step from uneven complimentary roster pieces to steady producers. The cracks were there to see before Opening Day, and while the severity of the Phillies’ struggles might have been unexpected, the fact that things have gone sideways shouldn’t be a surprise.

Thomas: You’re right, it’s always ‘The Mets’, isn’t it? Even if it isn’t this time. The Mets certainly did try, but there were also warning signs with just how much David Stearns was trying this offseason. It’s not like Pete Alonso is having an AL MVP-worthy season at the moment in Baltimore, but it was always a risk to let him walk and take a big gamble on Jorge Polanco. It felt like they fell into Bo Bichette, too, didn’t they, after the Kyle Tucker debacle? To me, it seemed like New York attempted to do too much in one offseason.

The Mets certainly did a lot more than the Phillies this offseason. However, I think there was more reason for urgency in New York than in Philadelphia. The Phillies won 96 games last season and 95 the year before. They’ve won at least 90 games over the last three seasons. Dave Dombrowski should have done more than just re-signing Adolis Garcia, but if the Mets don’t swipe Bichette away from Philadelphia in stunning fashion, how much would that change your perspective on their offseason? The Phillies felt more proven and safe than the Mets, and while their age was going to catch up to them at some point, I didn’t think it’d be this dramatic to start the year.

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Tajuan Walker was a disaster of a signing, but the drop in production from Aaron Nola, I think is fair to say has been a surprise. With Zack Wheeler back, their top three of Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Jesus Luzarado is a really good one. I still like a whole lot more about this Phillies team than I do the Mets. Dombrowski has pushed a lot of the correct buttons in Philadelphia the last few years, and while he didn’t press many this offseason, I can’t say I blame him after winning so many games the last two years.

It’s the Mets for me.

Tayler: I also think the Phillies are, by and large, the better roster right now, though that’s thanks mostly to the injuries that New York has suffered. There was no version of a Mets team without Francisco Lindor that was going to contend, and it’s probably not a coincidence that they went 3-12 while Juan Soto was on the injured list. As of right now, the Mets are missing not only Lindor but also Polanco and Robert, as well as their backup shortstop in Ronny Mauricio and the generally useful Jared Young. The result is a patchwork lineup with way too much MJ Melendez and Tyrone Taylor in the mix. And the less said about the disintegration of Kodai Senga, the better.

It also can’t be stressed enough that the Phillies’ opening stretch of hell came against a tough slate: from April 13 through 26, they only played the Cubs and Braves and went a gag-inducing 2-11 against two of the NL’s best teams. Since then, things have predictably gone better, with Philadelphia ripping off eight wins in nine games against the woeful Giants, the spunky-but-limited Marlins, and the uneven A’s. And things don’t get appreciably tougher until a West Coast swing against the Padres and Dodgers starting on Memorial Day, giving the Phillies plenty more time to right the ship. Helping matters, too, are the returns of Wheeler, Realmuto and Jhoan Duran; the Phillies are at full health, and it shows.

All of which is to say, I think I’m coming around to your argument that it’s the Mets, because while the Phillies were an abject catastrophe to start the season, they’ve rapidly found equilibrium, whereas it’s hard to see how this compromised version of the Mets can do the same. Lindor and Robert will be down for a while, and Polanco might be limited all season. New York climbing back into contention will depend heavily on Bichette finding his stroke, on Brett Baty and Mark Vientos reaching their potential, on Carson Benge making the adjustment to MLB pitching, on Semien finding the Fountain of Youth, on Williams avoiding blowups, and most importantly, on everyone staying healthy. Neither team has much of a margin for error left, but in the Mets’ case, they need more to go right at this point than the Phillies do.

Thomas: Man, that is a whole heck of a lot of things that need to go right for the Mets, and fast. I do wonder what Bichette is thinking about all of this, besides getting to play shortstop again? Very quickly, he’s become John Travolta in that PULP FICTION scene. I wonder what the Mets’ last two huge offseason signees — Bichette and Juan Soto — are thinking about their decisions here in early May?

It seems very unlikely that both teams are ultimately able to get up off the mat, and to your point, it is already looking like the team more likely to pull it off is the Phillies. It’s funny how different a brutal start to the season can be for a franchise. Last year, a disastrous start for Atlanta proved to be too much for the Braves to overcome. In 2019, the Washington Nationals started 19-31 and won the World Series.

As you wrote, you can very easily and understandably explain the Phillies’ brutal start — injuries and a brutal early schedule. If you’re Bichette, though, are you having second thoughts about not ultimately choosing the Phillies? If you’re Soto, though, are you having second thoughts about not ultimately choosing the New York Yankees? The Phillies seem to have just needed better schedule luck and to get more key guys healthy to get back on track.

The Mets feel like a college football powerhouse that relied too much on the transfer portal and not enough on player development and player retention. They feel like 2025 LSU a bit. New York overhauled their roster because there is a healthy appetite to win and win big. The same was true for the Tigers in Baton Rouge last year with their No. 1 overall transfer portal class. The season was a disaster, their head coach got fired, and they were one of the sport’s biggest disappointments. Well, they followed that up with another No. 1 overall transfer portal class and a new head coach.

One bright spot, if you’re a Mets fan, is that you have an owner who really wants to get this right. That’s not a universal perspective in this sport. This season is likely a wash, but New York is not doomed to be a perpetual cellar dweller like the Colorado Rockies or Los Angeles Angels for years to come. I’d actually be more nervous about being a Phillies fan after this year than a Mets fan. When it’s truly over in Philadelphia, it’s going to be a brutal transition. New York can claw their way out of this hole, just not this season. That work begins in December.

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The Atlanta Braves and the New York Yankees have had splendid starts to their 2026 MLB regular season campaigns. The Braves are 23-10 and winners of seven of their last ten games. The Yankees are 21-11 and winners of eight of their last ten games. The Braves have the best run differential in baseball at +68, and the Yankees are two spots below them at +52. The Braves are third in offensive WAR, while the Yankees are fifth, per FanGraphs. (The Yankees are No. 1 in pitching WAR, too, with Cam Schlittler at No. 1 in all of baseball and fellow teammate ace Max Fried right behind him at No. 3.) Wherever you look, there is so much to like about both Atlanta and New York’s starts to the 2026 MLB season. However, if you had polled both fan bases before the season, I don’t think either would have overwhelmingly predicted the starts both teams have had to this point.

The Braves lost their big free-agent retention piece, shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, to a bizarre injury that has caused him to miss the start of the season. We all know what happened with left fielder and designated hitter Jurickson Profar. Starters Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach haven’t pitched for the big-league club yet due to different injury issues. The team did not add a high-priced starter and opted to roll with internal options, such as Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes, and Reynaldo Lopez. There was quite simply a lot of angst before the start of the 2026 season, and wouldn’t you know it, Elder is 16th in all of baseball in Pitching WAR.

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The Yankees did re-sign outfielder Cody Bellinger. Something that had to happen after the team lost Juan Soto to the New York Mets the previous offseason. They brought Trent Grisham back. They traded for Ryan Weathers. Like the general manager of the Braves, Alex Anthopoulos, general manager of the Yankees, Brian Cashman, put together the kind of offseason that makes a rabid fanbase angsty. And yet, the Yankees lead the AL East here on May 2. The Yankees are 13-4 since the Tampa Bay Rays swept the club on April 12. The Yankees are No. 1 in pitching and No. 5 in batting through May 2. Only the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers can also say they’re in the top-5 in both categories. That’s pretty elite company for Cashman’s team to be in through 32 games.

If you’re a fan of either team, you’re obviously excited about how your team has started the season. However, it’s in our nature to always be looking ahead. It’s why college football recruiting is still such a big deal for so many programs across the country. For New York fans, you can’t help but notice that Carlos Rodon just completed his second rehab start. Ace Gerritt Cole completed his third rehab start this week, too. The cavalry is coming to the Bronx, to be sure, but as I’ve previously written in this very piece, they’re coming into the best pitching situation in baseball. The Yankees are the only AL team in the top-6 in run differential, and barring any unlucky setbacks for Rodon or Cole, have two additional looming big-time arms to cement themselves as the best team in the AL by a wide margin.

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For the Braves, Elder’s surprising dominance has been huge. Even more so when you factor in the rough start to the season for fellow starter Reynaldo Lopez. It looks like Strider is expected to make his season debut in Colorado on Sunday. If Strider can reestablish himself as one of the top arms in the NL once again, that’s obviously huge for Atlanta, particularly with Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep not in the starting rotation picture anytime soon. If either young, high-upside arm J.R. Ritchie or Didier Fuentes can find their footing as a long-term answer in the rotation, that would obviously be fantastic for Atlanta, too. Still, the team has the best offense in baseball, and closer Raisael Iglesias is reportedly close to returning, too. The Braves don’t need to have a top-10 Pitching WAR – they were 14th in 2021 when they won the World Series – but at the very least, you would feel a lot more comfortable about this rotation if Strider looks close to the old, dominant version of himself from a few seasons ago.

There are so many great stories for these two teams to start the season, too. First basemen Ben Rice and Matt Olson are tied with ten home runs apiece, and are No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in 1B WAR. Both teams have two starters in the top-15 in xERA at the moment – for New York, it’s Schlittler and Fried, and for Atlanta, it’s Elder and Chris Sale. For New York, Will Warren and Weathers are in the top-12 in K/9 with great FIP numbers, but quite unlucky BABIP numbers. Ozzie Albies has a 150 WRC+ and is crushing lefties with a .370 average and also hitting .417 in high-leverage situations. There are just great stories everywhere you look for both teams.

Yes, it is still May 2. A lot can change between now and the end of the season. However, both Atlanta and New York’s hot starts are a welcome reminder that offseason anxiety isn’t always warranted. Baseball is weird. The Braves can have the best offense in baseball without Kim and Profar and without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley hitting like we all know they can. The Yankees can have the best pitching staff in baseball without Cole and Rodon. Will it all keep up for both teams? Who knows, but for now, the two best stories in baseball to start the 2026 season went into it with all kinds of similar questions and concerns. That’s what makes sports great, right? Sometimes all that worrying can be for nothing.

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That’s baseball is a common expression that every baseball fan knows all too well. The Atlanta Braves won the NL East fourteen years in a row and won one World Series. That’s baseball. The Tennessee Volunteers had the most dominant regular-season college baseball team this century and didn’t make it out of the Super Regionals. That’s baseball. The San Diego Padres have tried and tried to win the NL Pennant over the last half-decade, but no dice. That’s baseball. Unless you’re a Los Angeles Dodgers fan, all 29 other fanbases understand that this sport, particularly the postseason format, is unpredictable. Ultimately, you want to be in the mix more often than not and let the chips fall where they may.

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Interestingly, that seems to be how New York Mets owner Steve Cohen sees things. ESPN’s Jorge Castillo wrote a really good piece on the Mets and all of their offseason changes. At the end of the story, Cohen is quoted as saying the following:

“The longer I’ve been here, the more I’ve realized that all I can do is commit the resources, allow my baseball people to pick the places, and a lot of it goes year-to-year,” Cohen said. “It’s dependent on injuries, it’s dependent on a lot of things. And it’s really hard to predict the future.”

Cohen is completely correct, of course. Not only is he completely correct, but he also showed that he has the best attitude an owner can have in sports. The best three things a team owner can do are provide the resources necessary to compete, hire the right people, and let it all play out. You can do all the right things as an owner, but a bad injury here or a bad match-up there can pop up at any turn. The Mets smartly pried Juan Soto away from their crosstown rival last offseason, and they missed the playoffs. New York missed the postseason last year for a litany of reasons, most of which Cohen and the front office hope don’t repeat themselves in 2026 with so many offseason changes.

But you never know.

Indeed, Cohen and the Mets’ front office don’t know for sure if all of these changes will lead to the results they’re ultimately after. You can only continue to spend some money, take smart swings at the plate, and see what happens.

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It was Seneca who once said, “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” The Dodgers needed some luck last year to beat the Toronto Blue Jays in the World Series. The latter needed some luck to get by the Seattle Mariners in the ALCS. The Braves needed some luck from role players Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario to win the 2021 World Series. The Philadelphia Eagles won a Super Bowl the same season their franchise quarterback was injured in Week 14 of the 2017 NFL season and was lost for the entire postseason run. If you simulate the Atlanta Falcons’ 28-3 collapse in Super Bowl LI against the New England Patriots 100 times over, how many versions end with the Falcons still losing the game?

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For whatever reason, the word ‘luck’ has a negative connotation oftentimes in sports, but it shouldn’t. The Mets need some luck to get where they want to go this season after their roster overhaul, as the Dodgers do with so many of their key pieces well into their 30s now. Atlanta lost their entire opening-day starting rotation last season. What were the chances of that ever happening? A great owner understands this, but they then continue to provide the necessary resources when Lady Luck forgets to smile on them. They continue to employ the right people. They continue to trust in the preparation.

Then you hope some luck finds your team.

For Cohen, if he can maintain that mindset, there is nothing more a Mets fan can ask out of their owner. In 2023, Buck Showalter was the team’s manager and Billy Eppler was the team’s general manager. That feels like forever ago now. The Dodgers were sold in 2012, but the team did not win its first World Series with their stacked ownership group until 2020, nearly a decade later. Before the last two seasons, Los Angeles had won one championship in their first twelve seasons under this new vaunted ownership group. It may or may not take that long for the Mets to win their first championship under Cohen. They may never win one, too, but that’s baseball.

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The New York Yankees made it all the way to the World Series in 2024. They won 94 games last season. Aaron Judge led all Major League Baseball players in Total War at 10.1 last season. New York has won at least 90 games four out of the last five seasons. The team has made the postseason nine out of the last eleven seasons. In a loaded AL East, Fangraphs’ projections give the Yankees the edge to win the division. The Seattle Mariners are the only AL team in Fangraphs’ projections to have a better chance of winning the World Series. There is no question that the team general manager Brian Cashman has put together for 2026 should be another great one that could return to the World Series for the second time in the last three seasons.

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Still, when it’s the Yankees, you always have to wonder if Cashman and company did enough.

It will be a 20-year title drought if the Yankees don’t win another championship within the next four years. The last title drought that went for this long in New York ran from 1979 to 1996. In fact, with the Los Angeles Dodgers being the Los Angeles Dodgers, it is not at all unfeasible that the Yankees will eclipse their longest championship drought since they became the Yankees all the way back in 1913. There is only one other period in the team’s history with a comparable championship drought from 1963 to 1977. The Yankees haven’t won a World Series since 2009, and have only been to one since. The Yankees have won at least 90 games in seven of their last nine seasons, and that’s including the COVID-shortened 2020 season.

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The biggest item of business that Cashman took care of this offseason was re-signing star outfielder Cody Bellinger. After losing Juan Soto to the New York Mets the previous offseason, history did not repeat itself for the Yankees, and the team was able to retain the 2019 NL MVP award-winner. Had Bellinger signed elsewhere, the feeling and tenor in New York would be quite different. When the Yankees lost out on Soto to the Mets, it was a major gut punch to the fanbase. Had they lost Bellinger in a similar fashion in back-to-back offseasons, winning 94 or more games for the third consecutive seasons would have seemed almost inconceivable. However, the Yankees re-signed Bellinger to a five-year, $162.5 million deal in late January. Only Judge is projected by Fangraphs to produce a higher WAR in the everyday starting lineup for the Yankees next season. Over his last three seasons, Bellinger has averaged a WRC+ of 123. You could lose Soto and still be OK, as the Yankees found last season, but you could not lose Bellinger, too, in back-to-back offseasons.

The Yankees’ lineup, particularly at the top of the order, should be very good once again. It’s a very strong 1-6, with some wildcards at the tail end of it in Ryan McMahon and Anthony Volpe. The latter is still young, and it’s uncertain what he’ll ultimately evolve into at the plate. The former has hit 20 or more home runs in five consecutive seasons. If he can get to around 100 WRC+ in his first full season in New York and keeps mashing, you love it in the bottom third of the order. Giancarlo Stanton is 36 now, though, and played in 77 games a season ago. Even more concerning is that this came after four consecutive seasons where he gave you at least 100 games played. Still, the Yankees are just 1.2 batting WAR away from being projected to have the second-best offense in MLB this season.

It’s the pitching that is the biggest wonder for New York in 2026. When does Gerrit Cole return? When does Carlos Rodon return? The Atlanta Braves are in a similar boat with Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep. Both teams are projected to win their division in late February, but you would also feel a lot better about their title chances with both starters back in the fold and pitching well. For both teams, it’s unlikely their early-season absence will cost them in late September, but if all four arms were healthy and available in late March, who wouldn’t like the Yankees and Braves chances to win 94-plus games and the pennant?

In Queens, the New York Mets had an offseason only Tobias Funke could love. With so much roster turnover and so much money spent in New York, the gap between the Mets’ and Yankees’ payrolls in 2026 at No. 2 and No. 3 is the largest in the sport at $56 million, per Fangraphs, the pressure and angst should primarily fall on the Mets. The Mets collapsed and missed the postseason entirely last season after signing Soto away from the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers did the opposite, bringing back Bellinger, Trent Grisham, and Paul Goldschmidt. They avoided arbitration with Jazz Chisholm Jr. Is there another level Ben Rice gets to for the Yankees at first base and at the dish?

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If the lineup mashes, Cole and Rodon both return a couple of months into the season, or even into the summer, the Yankees could certainly win the AL Pennant. The AL East figures to be a juggernaut this season, but among the top-3 favorites, the Yankees are sure to be the safest pick to be the last team standing from the division once again. Toronto has made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons twice in my nearly 35 years on this planet. The Baltimore Orioles might need to have a 20-win jump from last season to this season to win the division. The Yankees may not have done enough to be the overwhelming favorite in the AL, but they have done enough to be one of the favorites once again, something fans should never take for granted.

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A.J. Preller was named the San Diego Padres' general manager nearly 12 years ago. It’s been a tale of two halves for the team’s long-time general manager. In the first five seasons, the team won around 70 games yearly. Over the last five seasons, the team has won around 87 games yearly. The Padres have made the MLB playoffs four out of the last six seasons. It’s been the most successful run in the team’s history, and Preller has overseen it all.

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This week, it was announced that Preller had agreed to a multi-year extension with the team. Preller trails only New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman in being the longest-tenured shot-caller for his team. It’s another well-deserved extension for one of the best general managers in the sport. It’s also well-timed, as the PECOTA & Fangraphs projections don’t exactly love the Padres this season. This could be a ballclub that hovers around .500 this season, or worse.

The Padres have been real contenders for half a decade now, and San Diego has had a payroll that has fallen somewhere in the top-11 every year since 2021. Their projected 2026 payroll ranks 9th, per Fangraphs, which would be the lowest since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. With a projected win total of roughly eighty wins and the worst farm system in baseball, you can see where the wind is blowing in San Diego this year and beyond.

If the bottom starts to fall out after six years of contention, Preller has more than earned the opportunity to be the chosen executive to lead the reboot. After all, he built this team that has won 90-plus games in back-to-back seasons. Before these last two seasons, that had never been done in San Diego. The Padres have never won at this level and with this kind of consistency as a franchise, dating back to 1969. Sure, the team hasn’t made the World Series during this run, but that is such a silly way to remember this era of Padres baseball. Preller built a sustainable, real contender year after year for six years now, regardless of what happened in the postseason.

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You also can’t talk about the Padres without talking about the Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s easy to overlook San Diego’s success because of Los Angeles, a team that has won back-to-back championships with the highest payroll in the sport. However, the two teams Preller has assembled over the last two seasons have won 183 games in the regular season – the Dodgers have won 191. Eight more wins than the Padres across two seasons, just eight. Preller and the Padres haven’t blinked as the Dodgers continue to build the biggest juggernaut of all juggernauts. Preller has rewarded fans who stuck with him during those tough first five seasons with the club with a contention window that has now lasted over half a decade. If San Diego competed in the NL Central the last six seasons, how does the rest of baseball view this run by Preller and the Padres?

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All of this winning has come at a cost, though. The Padres now have the worst farm system in baseball, per ESPN. This was an inevitable result for San Diego at some point. Preller has continued to be aggressive, trying to get over the hump in the postseason. When you trade for Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Juan Soto, Josh Hader, and Mason Miller during your six-year contention window, the farm system takes a hit. You wonder if this season starts to go sideways in San Diego, that Preller, now with his extension, elects to re-stock the cupboard and trades Miller, Fernando Tatis Jr., Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and many other possibilities. Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill might be the only under-30 players in the everyday lineup this season on a team that could win fewer than eighty games.

It could also go the other way with so much veteran talent, sprinkled in with young stars like Tatis Jr., Merrill, and Miller. With so many questions about the 2027 MLB season, I like that Preller is willing to see how things shake out with this group and take fliers on guys like Ty France, Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning, Miguel Andujar, etc. The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks certainly aren’t sure things in 2026. The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets both missed the postseason last year. It’s baseball, you never know.

Everyone needs a little bit of luck in this sport. The Diamondbacks have made the postseason just once since San Diego vaulted into contender status and then made it all the way to the World Series, losing 4-1 to Texas. The Snakes made one postseason appearance and won the NL pennant. The Padres made the postseason four times, but did not win the NL pennant once. It has to be a bit frustrating for Preller to see two different NL West teams make the World Series for three straight seasons now, and your team not included. The Padres needed some postseason fortune like the Diamondbacks found in 2023. Perhaps that’s 2026 for San Diego as a wild-card team. Perhaps not.

Preller has continually assembled a team that has needed Lady Luck to smile on his ballclub in the postseason, just once, and everyone might view this era of San Diego baseball, and Preller for that matter, quite differently. That could happen this year, even with the tepid preseason projections for Preller’s club. That’s when it happened for the D’Backs in 2023. Preller has done a really good job for a really long time now in San Diego, but 2026 feels like the last chapter in the most successful run for the Padres, and I can’t wait to see how it all plays out.

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The most interesting aspect of the Colorado Rockies’ offseason was the moves the team made within its front office. Colorado relieved general manager Bill Schmidt of his duties and brought in Paul DePodesta from the Cleveland Browns to be their new President of Baseball Operations. It’s the most interesting move the franchise has made in years. 22 years ago, the Los Angeles Dodgers made DePodesta the fifth-youngest general manager in the sport’s history. After nearly a decade in professional football with the Browns, DePodesta is back in baseball in a division he knows all too well, with stops in Los Angeles and San Diego, with a franchise in desperate need of a jolt. Maybe DePodesta is that jolt.

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It’s going to be challenging, though. Since the franchise’s inception, Colorado has never won the NL West. They haven’t won more than 75 games in eight years. The division is extremely competitive, even behind the Dodgers. The San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, and Arizona Diamondbacks could all be playoff teams this year. They are set up so that all three teams could be playoff teams the next couple of years, too. While it’s a strategy I full-heartedly endorse, the Rockies can’t only draft former Tennessee Volunteers stars like Chase Dollander, Jordan Beck, and Seth Halvorsen and expect to escape the basement of the NL West.

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That help is also unlikely to include Kris Bryant. The former MVP was placed on the 60-day IL this week for continued back issues. Since signing with the club in March of 2022, the four-time All-Star has never played more than eighty games in a season. His WRC+ has dropped from 79 to 64, and then all the way down to -4 over the last three seasons. It’s all just a bummer for the former No. 2 overall pick that was one of the game’s biggest stars a decade ago. It would have been a lot of fun to see Bryant rake at Coors Field for the remainder of his prime, but that, unfortunately, is not how things unfolded for both sides.

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DePodesta was the biggest move the Rockies added this offseason, but, man, the addition of former Baltimore Orioles pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano is right up there. The Rockies do not play in a pitcher-friendly park, as you all know. The 35-year-old workhorse finished second in Baltimore in innings pitched last season behind Dean Kremer. He also had a 15.6 HR/FB last season and a 5.36 FIP.

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The first starting pitching rotation of the DePodesta era is one of the oddest in all of baseball. The Rockies have four projected starters who will be 33 or older this season, and then there is Dollander, who is nearly 10 years younger than Kyle Freeland. The projected five-man rotation looks like this: Freeland, Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana, Dollander, and Sugano. Four of the five starters are projected to have an ERA north of 5 in 2026, which could be a major problem for Colorado this season.

This is because the Colorado Rockies’ offense is in bad shape. You assume there are some Brad Hawpe’s somewhere in that order lineup most years in Colorado, but there aren’t this year. At least there are not any projected to be – Hunter Goodman has the highest projected WRC+ in the lineup at 105, slightly above league average. Seven of the nine starters have a projected WRC+ that falls below 100. Colorado’s lineup needs an infusion of young talent, which, if you’re a Rockies fan, includes Charlie Condon and eventually Ethan Holliday.

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So things are weird, as they always are in Colorado. The Rockies’ lineup lacks juice. The Rockies’ rotation is oddly older. The team needs help in so many different areas. The club has the 23rd-best farm system in baseball, per The Athletic’s Keith Law, a spot you don’t want to be when you’ve been so bad for years.

By bringing in DePodesta, though, Colorado is finally signaling that it is open to trying a different approach. It doesn’t mean it will work, but nothing has worked for a long time now. I am quite fascinated to see how everything unfolds for the Rockies this season, and the next couple after, for the first time in a long time, that’s for sure.

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Tarik Skubal will make $32 million to pitch for the Detroit Tigers this season. It should be the hope of both Tigers fans and baseball fans alike that the two-time American League Cy Young Award winner pitches for the Detroit Tigers and the Detroit Tigers alone this season.

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As of this writing, Fangraphs’ playoff projections give the Tigers a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs this season. In the AL Central, there are three teams projected to win fewer than 80 games, the only division in baseball where this is projected to be the case. The AL East is jam-packed with want-to-be contenders, and the Tigers are projected to win more games than all of them. There is a real possibility that if all goes right for Detroit this season, the Tigers will be the top seed in the AL this fall. That would be a very nice story for what is in all likelihood the final year Skubal dons a Tigers uniform.

I wrote last week about why the Baltimore Orioles made the most sense as the team that signed former Houston Astros ace Framber Valdez. Instead, it was the Tigers. With Valdez, the Tigers have a strong four-man rotation in Skubal, Valdez, Casey Mize, and Jack Flaherty. 400 innings between Skubal and Valdez should mean Detroit can win 90-plus games this season. Detroit has won 88 regular-season games five times across my tenure on this planet – the club made it to the World Series twice, the ALCS twice, and the ALDS once. Good things have happened for Detroit when they’ve reached at least that magic number of 88 over the last thirty-four years.

You hope this all comes together for the Tigers this season. What you don’t want is a situation where things spiral for the Tigers this season, particularly before Aug. 3 – MLB’s Trade Deadline. Outside of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who we will get to in a moment, you could talk yourself into so many different divisional winners and playoff teams this season. It should be highly competitive across so many divisions.

Everyone in the AL East could win the AL East. Three or four teams could make the playoffs out of the AL West. The NL East could have three playoff teams. Four different teams could win the NL Central. The 2026 MLB Postseason chase has all the potential in the world to be superb the last couple of months – as long as the Tigers and Dodgers don’t ruin things.

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There is already so much uncertainty about the 2027 MLB season. Will there be a lockout, and will we lose games? If so, how many? Will there not be a work stoppage at all? Your guess is as good as mine, but that uncertainty is both real and unavoidable this season.

The Dodgers have won back-to-back championships. The worst thing that could happen to what could be a great final sprint towards the postseason for the League is a Skubal-to-the-Dodgers trade. That would not guarantee a three-peat for Los Angeles, MLB’s postseason is beautifully wonky in that way. However, it would feel that way going into the postseason.

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And most folks would understand both sides of it. The Dodgers have the best farm system in baseball. The Tigers, were they to flame out this season, would be foolish not to entertain a trade that would send Skubal to the Dodgers for The Sake Of Baseball Vibes. I get anxious just thinking about writing what a Skubal-to-Los-Angeles trade package would look like – it is probably best not to write that into existence. It must be stated that were such a deal to go down this summer, Detroit would get quite the haul from Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are an older team. Injuries happen, and could happen, which might make them more inclined to give up a hefty trade package to the Tigers for Skubal. Starter Tyler Glasnow pitched just 90.1 innings last season. Starter Blake Snell threw 61.1. You don’t have to squint too hard to envision a scenario where the Dodgers’ starting rotation is a huge question mark right around the trade deadline. This could absolutely be a situation where the Dodgers have both the means and the need for Skubal, as frustrating as that might be for every non-Dodger fan across the globe.

It’s only February, though. As it stands, the Tigers have assembled a team that can make a World Series run this year in Skubal’s swan song in Detroit. The Dodgers might have the means and the need for Skubal in August. They might also have a bigger need in the lineup, depending on who stays healthy there in Los Angeles. Six of their nine projected starters are 30-plus, and huge offseason signee Kyle Tucker has averaged 106 games played the last two seasons. Both teams’ seasons could go a variety of different ways. Let’s just hope it doesn’t involve a mid-season trade that sends Skubal to the Dodgers.

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The Miami Marlins never should have gone away from the teal. It was an iconic look when it burst onto the scene in 1993 until its demise in 2012. The Florida Marlins won their two World Series in 1997 and 2003, wearing the “Marlins blue”. That was the best era of Fish Baseball, and it’s a look that never should have vanished, even after the rebrand and stadium move. I have always been a big proponent of sticking with uniform combinations most associated with winning – it’s why I’d like to see Tennessee bring back the black outlines on their road whites with Adidas back on board with the Vols. Everyone loves Tampa Bay’s creamsicle uniforms, but the team was awful during that era of Buccaneers football, and they won their two titles with their current color combination. I’d stick with it. It’s been well over a decade now since Miami wore the correct color combination, but on Sundays this season, that’ll change.

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The Marlins nailed their throwback look for this season. Those teal jerseys paired with the pinstripe pants and the old-school Florida cap all work. You know a uniform change is a hit when the overwhelming responses online from fans of the team and baseball alike note that these should be the team’s primary unis. Sure, the Marlins have worn dreadful unis for a long time now, but this is a step in the right direction. Perhaps this is the first step towards a larger rebrand back to that iconic color of yesteryear. As Miami continues its slow-and-steady climb towards contending in the NL East, it would be splendid if its rise coincided with that slow-and-steady change to the club’s uniforms.

We shall see.

Something else popped in my head as I was reading about the Marlins’ new throwback uniforms this morning – MLB is in a fantastic place in the uniform department, advertisement patches excluded, of course. Sure, the nameplate disaster in 2024 was a tough scene, but when you exclude the mostly awful alternate uniforms most teams wear a few times a year, there aren’t many franchises left that need a uniform overhaul. The Toronto Blue Jays fixed their mistakes years ago. Same with the Houston Astros. The San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers have arguably never looked better. Most teams’ default uniforms are in a great place in 2026.

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Funny enough, it’s another Florida professional baseball team that first comes to mind that should follow Miami’s lead – the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays’ look reminds me a lot of the Columbus Blue Jackets, not hideous, but an easy-to-forget scheme and look. Tampa’s look feels aggressively boring. With new ownership coming in and perhaps a new stadium soon after, it would be nice to see the Rays spice things up. Maybe it starts with moving away from the sun rays and back towards the devil rays, but the Rays’ best run as a franchise is with their current look. It’s a conundrum for me.

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The Atlanta Braves’ uniforms are mostly perfect. The home unis, the Friday night unis, the City Connect unis, even the road blue unis all look great. (I’m pretty certain I have my navy Jordan Schafer shirsey around here somewhere.) My gripe has been my only gripe about Atlanta’s look for years and years and years, outside of bringing back the home cream unis for a game a week, and it’s the solid blue hat with the road greys. It’s such a nit-picking deal, but the cap with the red bill should be worn with the road greys – always. It completes the look with the red Atlanta script across the jersey. It’s what the Braves wore during their best run in franchise history. It’s the easiest adjustment a team could make in baseball, and one I would very much like to see changed.

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Only one other franchise comes to mind when I think of teams that could use some uniform help in 2026 – the Arizona Diamondbacks. I go back and forth on Zona’s look. I love the addition of that tiny teal outline on their uniforms that makes you think about those early 2000s home unis just a tad. The current Arizona road and home alternate uniforms are much better than what those Arizona teams twenty-plus years ago were wearing. The problem is none of the current unis come close to popping like the home pinstripe vest uniforms. It’s just that one look from a mostly terrible set from a long time ago. If there were a way to wear those at home and the other current Arizona uniforms everywhere else, that’d be splendid. However, that is obviously not how things work.

Alas.

Still, MLB is in a great spot with its clubs’ primary uniform sets. You can count the bad ones on one hand, while the NBA and NFL have more bad combinations than I’d like to count. If we can even get the color back full-time and that red bill on those road Atlanta greys, that’d be a fantastic development. (I suppose fixing the New York Mets’ black alternate unis as well.) The Marlins did a great thing by bringing back those throwbacks for Sundays this season. Kudos to Miami for doing the simple, but smart, thing that so many baseball fans have longed to see.

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The NL Central is an odd division. It’s been an odd division for a long time. If you’re a Chicago Cubs or Milwaukee Brewers fan, 2026 could prove to be your club’s year. Indeed, the NL Central division winner has won the World Series twice in the last twenty years. The Cubs last won it in 2016, and the St. Louis Cardinals won it in 2006. It’s like that even-year title run by the San Francisco Giants in 2010, 2012, and 2014. With the Los Angeles Dodgers continuing to be the Dodgers, I don’t suspect that there is a lot of belief that the winner of what has been consistently the worst division in the NL for years now will win the World Series this year. If they do, though, that would mean the NL Central champion will have won the World Series exactly one time exactly one decade apart in 2006, 2016, and 2026.

That would be pretty cool.

What would also be pretty cool is if one of Cincinnati or Pittsburgh surpasses the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. The Brewers have won the division for years in a row. They’ve won 90-plus games four out of the last five seasons, but they’ve made the NLCS just once over that span. When the Brew Crew finally advanced to the NLCS in 2025, they were promptly dispatched by the Dodgers in a 4-to-0 sweep. We all respect the Brewers, but don’t we all, outside of Milwaukee fans, want to see a different NL Central team take that 90-win leap to contend against the Cubs in 2026?

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That could be the Cincinnati Reds or the Pittsburgh Pirates. I don’t suspect a lot of casual sports fans are aware that Frangraphs’ projections like the latter a good bit in 2026. The Fighting Paul Skenes are projected to have a winning record in 2026, something the club has not achieved since 2018. The Pirates won 82 games that season but still missed the postseason. The Bucs haven’t made the postseason since 2015. The Reds have had a bit more success of late, winning 83 games last season and not advancing past the NL Wild Card round. The Reds haven’t been to the World Series in my 34 years on this planet, and the Pirates haven’t been since my father was in elementary school. Interestingly enough, both clubs won the World Series when they did make it.

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The Pirates edge the Reds out in 2026 intrigue. Every baseball fan knows how good Skenes is. What every baseball fan might not know is how good Konnor Griffin and Bubba Chandler could also be. In fact, two different ESPN MLB analysts differed on their Rookie of the Year picks, but both were Pirates – Griffin and Chandler. If Skenes, Griffin, and Chandler all hit for general manager Ben Cherrington, Pittsburgh very well may have a stew going.

The Reds signed Eugenio Suarez to be their DH in 2026. The 34-year-old played in Cincy from 2015-2021 and was an All-Star last season with the Seattle Mariners. The club also already has their Konnor Griffin in Elly De La Cruz. The latter was 15th in the NL last season in bWAR, a team-best. The Reds’ top pick and flamethrower in the 2024 MLB Draft, Chase Burns, pitched just 43 innings for the club last year. Fangraphs projects the former No. 2 overall pick to have a 3.52 FIP this season. He’s also projected to account for a WAR of 2.9 this season, the same figure Atlanta ace Chris Sale accumulated last season. If Burns takes that kind of step in Cincy’s rotation, pairing with Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, the Reds certainly could find their way into the 90-win club.

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There is a path for one of the Reds or Pirates to break through in 2026 as an upper-echelon team in the NL. There is a path where they, along with the Cubs and Brewers, are all bunched together between 80 and 90 wins. The Cubs and Brewers are the favorites, but the Reds and Pirates are close. It’s not going to get national attention, but man, monitoring the Reds vs. Pirates battle to break through in the NL Central is going to be fun. If recent history continues, the winner of the NL Central could very well be your 2026 MLB World Series champions, too.

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Pitchers and catchers report in just six short days. Major League Baseball is almost here. (Although it very much does not feel like it here in East Tennessee at the moment.)

As Spring Training draws closer, I’m going to dive into one big take for each team across each division to kick February off right.

First up, the NL East.

Atlanta Braves

Two teams in the National League are projected to win 90-plus games this season: the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Braves and Dodgers are also the only NL teams with a greater than 10-percent chance of winning the World Series. Los Angeles sits at a silly 27.5 percent chance, and the Braves are right behind them at 10.4. With the New York Mets going on a free-agency heater of late, this is the kind of development Braves fans needed to see. A healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. for 150-plus games would obviously be huge for Atlanta. I also wonder what the projections would be had Ha-Seong Kim not torn a tendon in his finger – how much will Mauricio Dubón’s fill-in work affect Atlanta being an NL East division winner or a Wild Card team in 2026?

The Braves still have some major question marks, particularly in the infield between Dubon and Ozzie Albies. Austin Riley has to have a much better WRC+ than 103 in 2026. Mr. Reliable Matt Olson has to maintain that well-earned status at first. Spencer Strider returning to some version of his old self is also very much in play and very important to Atlanta’s rotation. I don’t know how any of it will ultimately turn out, but I do know the Braves are one of two teams in MLB projected to win 90-plus games next year, and the other team has a 2026 payroll nearing $400,000,000.

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New York Mets

The Mets have played in the NL East since 1969, but they have won the division twice in my 34 years on this planet. They have not won this division since 2015. Only two games separate the Braves and Mets in the Fangraphs’ 2026 projections model. It feels like the Mets have been so much more active than Atlanta this offseason, like last offseason when New York swiped Juan Soto away from the Yankees. Soto had an OPS+ of 160, hit forty-three dingers, a career-high, and finished third in MVP voting. Swiping a young star from the AL East worked out for the Mets last season. I wonder if it works out this season with Bo Bichette? Only a year separates the duo in age, but Bichette comes to Queens with more questions than Soto did the year prior. Does it work for him at third? Can he make the All-Star team for the first time since 2023? How much would a regression in BABIP affect the two-time All-Star in New York next season – he went from .269 to .342 in 2024 and 2025, respectively. When you can add a young player still in his prime like Bichette, then you do it and figure out the rest later. You just wonder a lot more about Bichette than Soto for New York in 2026.

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Miami Marlins

The Marlins are quietly becoming a peskier and peskier team in the NL East. They’re a team in 2026 that you wonder how one would view them if they competed in the NL Central, rather than the NL East. Sure, the Chicago Cubs are the favorite, but the Pittsburgh Pirates – the Pirates! – are projected to have a winning season and a twenty-percent chance of winning the NL’s perennial weakest division. The Marlins and Pirates don’t feel that far apart, right? Unfortunately for Miami, they will play the Braves, Mets, and Phillies a lot this season. On the plus side, Miami has teased a return to its iconic teal uniforms as a Sunday alternate this season. While the Marlins’ current unis are improved from what they were in the Giancarlo Stanton days, a full-time return to the color scheme and look most synonymous with Great Fish Baseball would be the right move for Miami, especially as they inch closer and closer to contention in the NL East.

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Washington Nationals

The Nationals’ biggest offseason move thus far has also been one of the bigger headscratchers. Indeed, Washington traded away starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore to the Texas Rangers for a trio of prospects. Outside of Colorado, there is no more obvious last-place team in MLB than the Nationals in 2026. To trade Gore, the former No. 3 overall pick in the MLB Draft and a key piece D.C. received in the Juan Soto blockbuster trade, is just a bummer.

The club’s new general manager, Anirudh Kilambi, is pretty interesting, though, as he is one of the youngest GMs in MLB history. Oh, and the club’s President of Baseball Operations, Paul Toboni, the man who hired Kilambi, is the youngest in his position in MLB this year. Since winning the World Series in 2019, the Nationals have finished last in the division every single season except 2024, when they finished fourth. Barring an unexpected implosion atop the NL East, the Nationals are stuck in a gloomy place for years to come. It’ll likely be a full decade-long drought before Washington is a real, consistent title contender again, dating back to their last postseason appearance in 2019.

Just a really tough scene for Nats fans.

Philadelphia Phillies

Maybe the strangest team in the division.

From an outsider’s perspective, the vibes don’t feel great with the Phillies fanbase right now. And yet, the Phils are projected to win 87 games, should comfortably make the postseason once again, and then who knows what can happen. I’ve always been impartial to the Phillies’ President of Baseball Ops, Dave Dombrowski. The guy goes for it wherever he goes, whether it is in Boston, Miami, or Philadelphia. If your team hires him, you can bet he will try to do what every front office should be expected to do every season – try to win baseball games.

Quite the novel concept.

Alas.

The Phillies have won at least 90 games for three consecutive seasons. That level of winning over that stretch has only happened once in my lifetime, when Chase Utley and the crew won a World Series, lost another, and made it to the NLCS the year after that, in the late 2000s and early 2010s.

Sure, you want to win one title during this winning timeline like that beloved 2008 team did, but that 2008 team didn’t have the Los Angeles Dodgers in their way. The Dodgers have won back-to-back titles with a payroll nearing $400,000,000. Philadelphia is not alone here. It’s frustrating for the Braves, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Padres, Cubs, and several other contenders, but that kind of context matters. Bo Bichette or Alex Bregman would have been a nice add for Philly, but they’re going to be really good once again without either of them and have another shot in the postseason in all likelihood. The Phillies are in a great spot, just blocked by a ridiculous juggernaut in Los Angeles like the rest of the NL, and, really, the AL contenders. That’s frustrating, but it’s also very OK.

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The American League East is so fascinating once again in 2026. The Toronto Blue Jays came up just short of topping the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series last fall, and they could be better. After winning 192 games combined in 2023 and 2024, the Baltimore Orioles finished last in the division in 2025, and they want to be better. The Boston Red Sox might be the most consistently perplexing team in the division, but they might be better or worse in 2026. The New York Yankees remain the Yankees, and they could be better in 2026. Even the Tampa Bay Rays, who have seen a gradual decline over the last two seasons, could be better or worse in 2026. You could make a great case for any of these five teams to make the postseason, something you cannot do in any other division in baseball.

Cody Bellinger is back with the Yankees. The Blue Jays acquired Dylan Cease. The Red Sox added Ranger Suarez. The Rays are back in Tropicana Field. The Orioles, however, have perhaps been the busiest with their headline addition of Pete Alonso, formerly of the New York Mets. Baltimore also traded for Shane Baz from the Rays and Taylor Ward from the Angels. All while general manager Mike Elias might have the best young core of hitters in the division.

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Baltimore still has one more move to make, though. It’s the move all Orioles fans, and baseball fans, really, have been waiting for – Baltimore signing former Houston Astros starter Framber Valdez to fill out their rotation. Re-signing Eflin was good. Acquiring Baz was better. But Baltimore needs one more starter to fill out that rotation with Trevor Rogers, the aforementioned Baz, Kyle Bradish, and Dean Kremer.

Valdez’s 3.8 WAR in 2025 for Houston is higher than any current Baltimore projected starter in 2026. Fangraphs has Rogers with the highest projected WAR at 2.4 this season. Valdez pitched 192 innings last season – the closest Baltimore starter was Kremer at 171.2. Valdez struck out 182 batters last season, more than any Baltimore starter. Valdez is just one year removed from finishing seventh in Cy Young award voting. If you replace those 2025 Tomoyuki Sugano starts with 2025 Valdez starts, this Baltimore rotation looks a whole lot different in 2026 than it did in 2025.

Baltimore general manager Mike Elias has assembled a lineup that will feature former first-round picks all over the diamond. Six of Baltimore’s projected nine starters in the team’s projected lineup are former first-round picks. Only one is not an original Oriole draftee. The lone omission is Ward, who coincidentally was also a former first-round pick by his old team, the Los Angeles Angels. Alonso and Gunnar Henderson were not far behind as second-round picks. The lone outlier is Samuel Basallo, who has the potential to rake in his first full season in the majors.

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I admire what Baltimore has done thus far this offseason. The Blue Jays are coming off a World Series run, and the Yankees made it the year prior. Both came up just short of beating the increasingly ridiculous Super Power that is the Los Angeles Dodgers, but they got there. If Baltimore can ink Valdez to a deal, whatever the years and AAV may be, why can’t Baltimore continue this streak for the AL East?

This team earned a Wild Card spot in 2024 and won the division in 2023. The Orioles won 75 games last season. Toronto won 74 games in 2024. Look what Lady Luck had in mind for the Blue Jays? Situations in sports can change on a dime, and it certainly has for the defending AL champions.

The Orioles have the firepower offensively, as Fangraphs projects six of their top hitters to register a WRC+ of 110 or higher this upcoming season. Does Jackson Holliday take a big step? Alonso was eighth in all of baseball in WRC+ last season – the highest Oriole was Henderson at 51st. A rotation of Rogers, Valdez, Baz, Braddish, and Kremer is not the best in baseball, but it’s certainly better on paper than what Baltimore had in 2025.

But nothing is guaranteed in this juggernaut of a division. Outside of the Yankees having a losing season, of course, which hasn’t happened since 1992. The Rays look the weakest on paper, but Tampa Bay hasn’t finished last in the division in a decade. Good luck trying to understand and project Boston. Toronto has reloaded. The Orioles should be in the mix, though. With or without Valdez, they should be in the mix.

As a neutral observer, Valdez and Baltimore are a partnership you root for. You want more teams going for it like so many are in the AL East. Valdez in Baltimore adds more pressure to the New Yorks, Torontos, and Bostons of the division. That’s what all baseball fans should want to see – a division madeup of Mostly Triers.

I don’t know if Valdez winds up in Baltimore, but, man, it’d be awfully nice for baseball and baseball fans if he does.

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