3 Final Thoughts Ahead of No. 19 Tennessee vs No. 14 Vanderbilt
How will the biggest in-state rivalry game between the Vols and the Commodores go today?
A frequent conversation my wife and I have on our nightly walks around the neighborhood this time of year begins with how she cannot believe how much later it feels outside, as daylight saving time is no longer in effect. It’s 6:00, yet it feels and looks like 10:30. It takes a while to get used to the drastic change every year. The way my wife feels whenever we step outside to begin our nightly trek is quite similar to how I think writing this very piece, with the knowledge that Tennessee will play in its final regular-season game this afternoon against Vanderbilt – it seems absurd.
To be sure, Tennessee vs. Georgia feels like it took place some time ago, but it doesn’t feel that long ago. Wasn’t Halloween just over a week ago, too? Obviously, that is not the case as the Volunteers play game No. 12 on their schedule at 3:30 PM EST inside Neyland Stadium for the last time in 2025 later today. It happens every year, just like the conclusion to daylight saving time, where it’s a bit discombobulating to come to terms with the change. After today, the Vols will not play another football game inside Neyland Stadium for many months.
Let’s dive into three things I’m thinking about heading into the biggest Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt football game in my lifetime and beyond.
Is History An Accurate Indicator Of What’s To Come This Afternoon?
I picked Tennessee to beat Vanderbilt in a shootout on the podcast this week with Matt, but I didn’t feel super confident about it. A few days later, and I’m just as torn about today’s ball game between the Vols and the Commodores. The Vols have never lost to Vandy when they’ve scored at least 30 points inside Neyland Stadium. Tennessee has scored at least thirty at home this season in every ball game outside of the Oklahoma debacle a few weeks back. Tennessee head football coach Josh Heupel is 4-0 against the ‘Dores, and he’s scored at least 45 points in both home games against Vandy during his tenure. However, like that game against Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs earlier in the season, I’m not convinced 41 points will be enough to beat this iteration of Vanderbilt.
Tennessee Hasn’t Seen An Offense Like Vandy’s Since Georgia
Obviously, the Commodores have a lot more to play for this afternoon. A win gets Vanderbilt head football coach Clark Lea’s team to 10-2, and right in the thick of the school’s first College Football Playoff birth. Individually, star senior quarterback Diego Pavia could vault his way to the top of the Heisman odds with a big-time performance on the road in hostile territory this afternoon. Tennessee found itself in this position a year ago on the road in Nashville, but luckily for the Vols, the seas parted nicely around them to make it into the CFP. Even if Vanderbilt stuns Tennessee today in Knoxville, they’re likely going to need some help around college football to make the CFP field here in a couple of weeks. Still, the Pavia Factor looms largest to me. It’s fair, to me, to say this might be the biggest test the Vols’ defense has faced this season. Vanderbilt has the No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, per BCFToys. Tennessee is 0-2 this season against teams in the top 10 in this metric, as Georgia sits at No. 2 and Alabama at No. 8. Two things could be true going into this rivalry game: 1) The Vols’ defense has played a lot better over the last month, and 2) The Vols’ defense hasn’t faced a challenge like Vandy’s offense in over a month. Georgia is the closest program in FBS to Vanderbilt’s in offensive efficiency, and the Dawgs scored 44 inside Neyland Stadium. The Commodores are 9th in YPA through this season – they were 46th when the Vols played them in Nashville last season. The Commodores are No. 5 in the country on third downs – Tennessee is 98th in third-down defense vs. SEC competition this season. It is going to be a gigantic challenge for defensive coordinator Tim Banks’ defense to get off the field on third down and limit the Commodores’ chunk plays.
Vanderbilt Is Going To Have Problems Stopping The Vols’ Offense, Too
On the positive side, though, Lea’s defense has had all kinds of problems bottling Heupel’s offense over the years, and I don’t think Saturday will be any different. Vanderbilt is 120th in FBS in giving up long-passing plays. This should be a big afternoon for the Vols’ fantastic trio of wideouts in Chris Brazzell II, Braylon Staley, and Mike Matthews. Similar to how Tennessee opened the game against Florida last week or against Georgia a couple of months back, this feels like a game where senior quarterback Joey Aguilar will need to start hot. A scenario where the Vols don’t score points on two or three drives in the first half, either via turnovers or quick three-and-outs, could spell doom for Tennessee in the second half. However, I think all Vol fans should feel good about where this offense is coming out of the Florida win in Gainesville last week. Ethan Davis has become a breakout force in the passing game in his increased role following Miles Kitselman’s injury, DeSean Bishop is back on track, and the wideouts are in a great spot to light up Vanderbilt’s secondary this afternoon. Coming into this season, Heupel has lost just one home game since the start of the 2022 season. If the Vols fall to the ‘Dores today, that’d be three losses at home in 2025. I don’t think that happens today, but man, Tennessee’s offense is going to need to roll as it did out of the gate against Georgia, I suspect. My gut says Tennessee wins 48-45 in a bonkers back-and-forth affair to put a bow on the 2025 season for the Volunteers.