3 Reasons for Optimism for Tennessee This Upcoming Season

Here are my biggest three reasons why I believe in Josh Heupel's Volunteers ahead of the 2025-26 college football season.

There hasn’t been this much uncertainty heading into a new Tennessee football season since head football coach Josh Heupel’s first season in Knoxville. Tennessee has won thirty games over the last three years. They have had a different starting quarterback in each of those three years. That trend continues this year after expected second-year starter Nico Iamaleava’s stunning departure in April. Tennessee’s best two offensive players from last season are also gone: Dylan Sampson and Dont’e Thornton Jr. Tennessee’s best two defensive linemen from last season are gone, too: James Pearce Jr. and Omarr Norman-Lott. The Volunteers return just one starter on the offensive line from last season, too. And yet, ESPN college football writer Bill Connelly’s SP+ statistic, which includes returning production, projects the Vols as the No. 13 team in FBS this upcoming season. Even after Iamaleava’s departure, Tennessee’s win total projection over on FanDuel went from 9.5 to 8.5 wins. With or without the former 5-star quarterback, somewhere around the nine-win mark felt right.

In this two-part series here on TRSM, I’m going to make the case for both optimism and skepticism when it comes to the 2025 Tennessee Volunteers.

Let’s start with my three biggest reasons for optimism when it comes to Tennessee this fall.

I’m a big proponent of Connelly’s SP+ statistic, along with his exceptional work over at ESPN, in general, and where his model forecasts defensive coordinator Tim Banks’ defense in 2025 should make every Vol fan feel good. His statistical model puts Tennessee as the No. 7 defense in the country. Only three SEC teams are projected to be better in the best conference in college football, and it’s the usual suspects: Georgia, Texas, and Alabama. Coincidentally, or maybe not, all three powerhouses, along with the Vols, had a projected win total of 9.5 wins before Iamaleava’s departure. As much as we think about the offense on Rocky Top, it’s the defense and what Banks has built on that side of the ball that has put Tennessee in a position where they can realistically still win 9 or ten games after losing their blue-chip quarterback the day before their spring game. There is simply no better reason for optimism for the Vols this year than this defense. It’s a unit that lost two key players who went in the first two rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft. It’s not implausible to believe they could be even better in 2025 if a couple of blue-chippers breakout like Boo Carter, Arion Carter, Edwin Spillman, Jordan Ross, Tyre West among a few others. Banks’ defenses have improved their scoring total every single season in Knoxville, culminating in a top-10 unit in 2024. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Tennessee’s defense finish in the top-10 in this category in back-to-back seasons, and that’s how you protect your team’s floor.