3 Reasons for Optimism for Tennessee This Upcoming Season
Here are my biggest three reasons why I believe in Josh Heupel's Volunteers ahead of the 2025-26 college football season.
There hasn’t been this much uncertainty heading into a new Tennessee football season since head football coach Josh Heupel’s first season in Knoxville. Tennessee has won thirty games over the last three years. They have had a different starting quarterback in each of those three years. That trend continues this year after expected second-year starter Nico Iamaleava’s stunning departure in April. Tennessee’s best two offensive players from last season are also gone: Dylan Sampson and Dont’e Thornton Jr. Tennessee’s best two defensive linemen from last season are gone, too: James Pearce Jr. and Omarr Norman-Lott. The Volunteers return just one starter on the offensive line from last season, too. And yet, ESPN college football writer Bill Connelly’s SP+ statistic, which includes returning production, projects the Vols as the No. 13 team in FBS this upcoming season. Even after Iamaleava’s departure, Tennessee’s win total projection over on FanDuel went from 9.5 to 8.5 wins. With or without the former 5-star quarterback, somewhere around the nine-win mark felt right.
In this two-part series here on TRSM, I’m going to make the case for both optimism and skepticism when it comes to the 2025 Tennessee Volunteers.
Let’s start with my three biggest reasons for optimism when it comes to Tennessee this fall.
I’m a big proponent of Connelly’s SP+ statistic, along with his exceptional work over at ESPN, in general, and where his model forecasts defensive coordinator Tim Banks’ defense in 2025 should make every Vol fan feel good. His statistical model puts Tennessee as the No. 7 defense in the country. Only three SEC teams are projected to be better in the best conference in college football, and it’s the usual suspects: Georgia, Texas, and Alabama. Coincidentally, or maybe not, all three powerhouses, along with the Vols, had a projected win total of 9.5 wins before Iamaleava’s departure. As much as we think about the offense on Rocky Top, it’s the defense and what Banks has built on that side of the ball that has put Tennessee in a position where they can realistically still win 9 or ten games after losing their blue-chip quarterback the day before their spring game. There is simply no better reason for optimism for the Vols this year than this defense. It’s a unit that lost two key players who went in the first two rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft. It’s not implausible to believe they could be even better in 2025 if a couple of blue-chippers breakout like Boo Carter, Arion Carter, Edwin Spillman, Jordan Ross, Tyre West among a few others. Banks’ defenses have improved their scoring total every single season in Knoxville, culminating in a top-10 unit in 2024. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Tennessee’s defense finish in the top-10 in this category in back-to-back seasons, and that’s how you protect your team’s floor.
There was a lot of turnover at wide receiver and on the offensive line this offseason. Last offseason, lots of Vol fans and many analysts, too, worried about the turnover in the secondary. Tennessee proceeded to have its best cornerback room this century and gave up zero passing plays of 50-plus yards – the only SEC team to hold that distinction. I think it’s realistic to expect one of the wide receivers and offensive linemen to benefit from the offseason churn. However, I don’t think it’s realistic to expect both to benefit from the offseason churn. The offensive line is the better bet. Tennessee will likely start two former five-stars at the tackle spots in Lance Heard and David Sanders. Left guard Wendell Moe Jr., who transferred in from Arizona, didn’t give up a sack last season and has multiple years of starting experience, one of which was on a Wildcats team that won double-digit games in 2023. Center and/or right guard Sam Pendleton, who transferred in from Notre Dame, started games on a team that made it to the CFP National Championship this past season. The biggest mystery is a cross between William Satterwhite, Max Anderson, and Sham Umarov. All former blue-chip recruits and all guys who you don’t have to squint too hard to see helping offensive line coach Glenn Elarbee’s unit next season. With another new quarterback under center, this unit, particularly the tackles, has to be a better unit in 2025 than they were in 2024. It’s hard to foresee a scenario where Sanders is not better than the combination of John Campbell and Dayne Davis at right tackle this season. It’s hard to foresee a scenario where Heard, in a contract year, is not better at left tackle this season. It’s hard to foresee a scenario where Moe and Pendleton are not plug-and-play solid guards this season. Elarbee needs one of Satterwhite, Anderson, or Umarov to grab one of the jobs along the interior for the Vols to have one of the best offensive lines in the conference once again.
Special teams will always be overlooked, and I understand why. It’s a tiny part of the game, but it’s a gigantic part of the game, too. ESPN’s SP+ puts Tennessee at No. 21 in FBS this season – nearly a top-20 unit and thirteen spots better than the offense. Second-year starter Max Gilbert went through a brutal spurt in the middle of last season, but he finished strong, and the former blue-chip recruit of Memphis should be one of the best kickers in the conference again. Sophomore Boo Carter should also be the primary punt returner for the Vols in 2025. Had Jalen McMurray blocked Georgia punter Brett Thorson on one of Carter’s returns in that game, he would have likely scored a touchdown. With Tennessee’s offensive woes last season, especially in the first half, the Vols missed Dee Williams and his elite play on special teams. Carter is not Williams, but he’s arguably Tennessee’s best athlete and best bet to recreate what made Williams so dangerous on punt returns in 2023 and 2022. If redshirt junior Jackson Ross can bounce back from an average 2024 campaign, that would likely go a long way for the Vols, too. However, the hope is that Ross is not third in the SEC in punts again in 2025, as that likely means the offense, specifically the passing game, is sputtering once again. That being said, Gilbert and Carter alone have the potential to be stars on special teams in 2025 and beyond.
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In addition to my daily duties with ‘The Chase Thomas Podcast’, I also host a daily sports talk radio show called ‘The Chase’ on FOX Sports Knoxville and FANRUN Sports Radio from 1-3 PM Eastern Standard Time, Mondays through Fridays.
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