3 Thoughts and 1 Prediction: No. 15 Tennessee vs. No. 6 Georgia
Can the Vols end their eight-game losing skid to the Dawgs?
We’re a little over 24 hours away from No. 15 Tennessee taking on No. 6 Georgia inside Neyland Stadium on Saturday afternoon. It’s the earliest meeting between the two rivals since 1995, a game the Volunteers won in Knoxville 30-27. It’s also a rivalry that Tennessee once led, but since Kirby Smart’s arrival, the Vols are 23-29-2 all-time against the Bulldogs. Tennessee has lost eight straight to the Dawgs, the longest losing streak in the series.
The streak will end, but will it end on Saturday in the fifth meeting between Tennessee head football coach Josh Heupel and Georgia head football coach Kirby Smart? We’ll find out tomorrow night.
Let’s dive into my three thoughts and one prediction for tomorrow’s SEC opener for Tennessee.
Braylon Staley, Mike Matthews, and Chris Brazzell II have gotten off to solid starts for Tennessee. They face their toughest test of the season on the perimeter against Georgia’s secondary, headlined by Daylen Everette and KJ Bolden. Through four meetings between Heupel and Smart, Tennessee’s wide receivers have not been able to handle the Dawgs’ physicality on the outside to create vertical plays that result in touchdowns. The Vols’ longest pass play in Athens went for 17 yards last season. Tight end Miles Kitselman led Tennessee in receiving yards. If history repeats itself tomorrow afternoon, and Kitselman leads Tennessee or the Vols’ longest pass play goes for 17 yards, I don’t think there is a path for the Vols to pull this thing off. I can’t shake the feeling that the biggest aspect of this game is Tennessee’s wideouts vs. Georgia’s secondary. I trust this offensive line and running game, and I like what I’ve seen from the Vols’ passing trio to begin the year. One of Staley, Matthews, or Brazzell II has to have a big game for Tennessee to beat the Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon. Tennessee is not beating Georgia, a defense that has given up 14 first downs through two weeks, with four drives that go for 10-plus plays and result in touchdowns. It’s simply asking too much, even at home, against the best defense Georgia has had since 2022. All eyes are on the wideouts and who steps up to give Joey Aguilar and Tennessee a chance to earn the upset.
A hot first-quarter start for Tennessee would feel different this go around. The Vols have scored first in all four meetings in this Heupel vs. Smart battle. Yes, Tennessee has been shut out in the second half of the last two meetings. It’ll be forgotten, or maybe already is forgotten, that the Vols were a missed block on a punter by Jalen McMurray away from being up 14-0 on the road in Athens last season. Sure, they went up 10-0, but two touchdowns are very different than a touchdown and a field goal in terms of the pressure-cooker aspect. Former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck could have pressed like he had throughout the middle portion of last season, and who knows how it all goes for Tennessee. A similar situation awaits Georgia this year with Gunner Stockton. If Tennessee scores first once again, and Stockton responds with a quick three-and-out and Boo Carter houses his first punt return touchdown of the season, are we sure Stockton, in his first road SEC contest, responds with calmness and poise? It’s certainly plausible, but I suspect if Tennessee jumps on this Georgia offense early, the Vols have a real shot at pulling the upset. Similar to Alabama against Georgia in 2024, the Vols will need to inflict as much damage early before those vintage Smart halftime adjustments.
Joey Aguilar is still a wildcard. The 24-year-old has certainly looked the part for Tennessee through two games. He’s graded extremely well, per PFF, and tossed two huge vertical touchdowns to Matthews and Staley through two games. He has thrown zero interceptions. He’s also not been sacked. He’s not been under any pressure in 78 percent of his dropbacks. Nico Iamaleava and Tennessee scored 120 points against an ACC and FCS opponent to open last season, while Aguilar and Tennessee scored 117 this season. It does feel different, though. The receivers have more talent. The offensive line is a better overall unit than last year’s unit. We’ll see how often Aguilar is pressured against the Dawgs on Saturday, as I suspect it’ll be a whole lot more than he’s seen in the first two weeks. Aguilar is going to have to balance making plays outside of structure and not being reckless with the football. Aguilar tossing an interception or two is not a doomsday scenario for the Vols in this football game. Aguilar has to be aggressive vertically and over the middle of the field. Aguilar and Tennessee cannot check down their way to a victory over Georgia. Aguilar has to be assertive and fearless, and I think he will be in this football game. I just have no idea what that looks like when it is all said and done.
Prediction: I think this will be the most competitive four-quarter game in the Heupel vs. Smart series, but I still have to see it to believe it with the Tennessee wide receivers versus those Bulldog corners. Give me Georgia 23-17.
What do y’all think?