3 Thoughts & 1 Prediction: No. 17 Tennessee vs. Kentucky
Can the Vols get their first double-digit win in conference play this season against the 'Cats in Lexington?
It’s been a very odd week here in East Tennessee. The No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers play a football game on the road in Lexington against rival Kentucky, but you’d think it was a bye week for the Vols with how this week has played out for Vol fans. From last Saturday afternoon to the middle portion of this week, Tony Vitello and the future of Tennessee baseball have been the storyline for much of Vol Nation – in the heart of football season, no less.
To be completely transparent, it feels odd writing this very piece on Tennessee vs. Kentucky on this chilly Friday morning here in Knoxville. This week has been a gigantic gut punch for Vol fans everywhere. Vitello was the best baseball coach Tennessee has ever had, and, in all likelihood, will ever have. Vol fans know that, which is why this week has been harrowing. Tennessee had the best coach and biggest name in college baseball, and now he’s gone. The best coach at the University of Tennessee departed for a new challenge in the majors with the San Francisco Giants this week.
That happened.
It stung on Wednesday when it happened, and it still stings this morning as I write this piece. Tennessee fans watched as the Vols fell in Tuscaloosa once again last Saturday night, and with the week everyone in Vol Nation has had, the head football coach, Josh Heupel’s Volunteer football team desperately needs a nice, stress-free victory against the lowly ‘Cats on Saturday night.
Let’s dive into my three thoughts and one prediction for Saturday night’s ball game.
The Vols’ offense is good. Tennessee is tied for second nationally in scoring in all of FBS going into Week 9 of the college football season. In conference play, only Arkansas has averaged more points per game against fellow SEC teams to this point in the season. Tennessee’s offense has done enough to have the Vols at 5-2. In their two losses, Tennessee’s offense did more than enough to take down Georgia at home. However, the offense did not do nearly enough to take down Alabama on the road, in what was the worst offensive showing for Heupel’s teams in their three trips to Tuscaloosa. Still, the Vols lead FBS in total first downs. However, the Vols are also 39th in drive success rate, per BCFToys. Tennessee is 38th in points per drive, too. Tennessee’s penalty issues on its first two drives at Alabama on Saturday night doomed the Vols’ chances of winning that football game. The Vols are 49th in rushing offense in conference play this season, which is exactly where they were in 2023. Perhaps most notably of late, breakout wide receiver Chris Brazzell II has been shut down in his last two games, averaging just 8.8 yards per reception and zero touchdowns. The Tulane transfer was averaging 17.2 yards per reception before the calendar flipped to October. The trio that Tennessee needs to be most consistent offensively the rest of the way to win out is Brazzell II, Braylon Staley, and DeSean Bishop. The latter has carried Tennessee’s offense the last two weeks, and Staley has probably been the most consistent performer for the entire season among the Big Three for Tennessee. I think Tennessee will need all three to have big nights on Saturday vs. Kentucky for the Vols to win comfortably.
Is it relevant that Heupel’s previous two trips to Lexington have been close? This is a similar issue that No. 5 Georgia has faced when traveling to play Kentucky in recent years. Both Smart and Heupel are undefeated against the ‘Cats, but the games are vastly different when played at home versus away. Both Georgia and Tennessee have lost to Kentucky three times each in my lifetime. Funny enough, both have lost to Kentucky at home once and on the road twice since 1991. Georgia has beaten Kentucky by a combined total of 11 points in their last two trips to Lexington. That number is nine for the Vols. Perhaps this game is different, as this year’s Kentucky team is much worse than any of those previous Mark Stoops teams over the last four years. However, the Wildcats pushed No. 22 Texas to overtime at home last week and lost both home SEC games by a combined total of 10 against the Longhorns and No. 8 Rebels. At first glance, it feels like Tennessee should be favored by more than 8.5 points against this iteration of Kentucky, but if the last several seasons are any indicator, then perhaps not.
Tennessee and all of Vol Nation could really use a stress-free victory on Saturday night. With No. 13 Oklahoma looming next Saturday, along with a trip to Gainesville and a home finale against No. 10 Vanderbilt, this may be Tennessee’s last chance at a game where fans are not anxiety-riddled for four-plus hours. The Vols have won their two SEC games by a margin of 5 points. Two of their four conference games have gone to overtime. Suppose Kentucky plays Tennessee like they did Ole Miss and Texas at home. In that case, the Vols may find themselves in a close slugfest in every single conference game this season, something I don’t think a lot of fans anticipated coming into the year with this schedule. As frustrating as the 2024 season was at times, highlighted by the Vols’ offense being shut out in the first half for nearly a month, Tennessee won four SEC games by double-digits. That number is zero this season and could very well remain at that number the rest of the way. That’s been the story for the conference this season, with so many close games seemingly taking place every Saturday. Among the top-tier teams in the SEC, though, as Georgia has won two SEC games by double-digits this season, the same is true for Alabama as well. It doesn’t feel sustainable for the Vols to continue to find themselves in one-score games in conference play week in and week out and then expect to run the table and make it back to the CFP. A double-digit win would do a lot to curb a healthy amount of skepticism about whether or not this team is destined for its second 8-4 season in the last three years.
Final Prediction:
Tennessee 31, Kentucky 28. I would very much like to be wrong about this, but a scenario where now-underrated kicker Max Gilbert hits a game-winning kick to seal the game late seems very plausible here. Jackson Ross was huge for Tennessee against Alabama. If he’s able to pin the Wildcats inside the 10 multiple times like he did against the Crimson Tide, perhaps Tennessee can get out of Lexington with a comfortable victory. Through four SEC games, though, Tennessee has not proven it can do enough of the little things well, especially on the road, to win by double-digits and give Vol fans the relaxing night they could really use this week.