3 Thoughts and 1 Prediction: No. 15 Tennessee vs. Mississippi State

Will Tennessee be able to avoid an 0-2 start in SEC play?

Credit: Kyndall Williams/Tennessee Athletics

On Saturday at 4:15 PM EST in Starkville, MS, No. 15 Tennessee will play in its first road SEC game of the 2025 season. Mississippi State head football coach Jeff Lebby’s Bulldogs come into the ball game unranked, but have gotten off to a hot 4-0 start and upset Arizona State in their home stadium in week 2 of the college football season. ESPN’s FPI has the Bulldogs at 34th in FBS and the Vols at 9th. As Knox News’ Adam Sparks pointed out in his piece this week, in the last three seasons, Tennessee head football coach Josh Heupel has lost one conference game on the road to an unranked foe – will Lebby’s Bulldogs be this year’s culprit?

We’ll find out in approximately 48 hours.

Let’s dive into my three thoughts and one prediction for Saturday afternoon’s ball game between No. 15 Tennessee and Mississippi State.

1. Five-star true freshman offensive tackle David Sanders has not suited up for the Vols to this point in the season. Suppose you had told me back in the spring that Tennessee would be without Sanders, along with losing Larry Johnson III to the spring transfer portal to Colorado, at right tackle. In that case, I’d have suspected the Vols would have similar problems at right tackle that they had for much of last season between John Campbell Jr. and Dayne Davis. That has not been the case, as offensive line coach Glenn Elarbee’s position unit has been the best it’s ever been in the Heupel Era on Rocky Top. Redshirt freshman Jesse Perry has been rock solid at right tackle through his four starts. Right guard Wendell Moe and center Sam Pendleton have settled in nicely along the interior, and left tackle Lance Heard has given up zero sacks and zero quarterback hits in 132 pass-blocking snaps this fall, per PFF. Even the versatile redshirt sophomore Sham Umarov has been solid at left guard for the Vols with a 72.5 pass-blocking grade, per PFF, this season. If Sanders does indeed make his season debut against the Bulldogs on Saturday, I’m going to be very fascinated to see how they utilize him and who moves where along the offensive line. Do you slide Perry to right guard or left guard? The same is true for Moe. It’s a good problem to have, as this is the deepest offensive line the Vols have had in Elarbee’s five seasons at Tennessee. Still, this is a different and potentially complicated deal with Sanders going into a huge road game against a much-improved Mississippi State defensive line. I’m very curious to see what buttons Elarbee pushes here on Saturday.

2. It doesn’t feel like a College Football Playoff Eliminator Game for the Vols on Saturday, but isn’t it, though? Tennessee has never started 0-2 in conference play under Heupel. If they fall in Starkville on Saturday afternoon, that would be the situation for the Vols with road games at Alabama and Florida still on the docket, along with Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt coming to town. (Note: Tennessee is not losing in Lexington next month.) Could the return of Tennessee’s elite passing game give the Vols a realistic shot of running the table the rest of the way if they drop this game? Perhaps, but, man, that seems very unlikely. It doesn’t feel like a huge conference game as the Bulldogs are somehow unranked, but it certainly is. With how close Tennessee came to beating No. 3 Georgia two weeks ago, a lot of Vol fans, and understandably so, believe this team can make it to back-to-back CFP appearances. To do that, Tennessee has to win in Starkville and get to that much-needed bye week, where more big-time defensive reinforcements are reportedly on the way the following week against Arkansas. This’ll be the most nervous I’ll be for a Tennessee game until the Vols travel to Gainesville to take on the Gators in two months.

3. On the flip side, if Tennessee does win this game, how can you not feel great about the Vols’ CFP chances? They win, get a bye, and two weeks to prepare to right last season’s wrong against the Razorbacks in Neyland Stadium. A win on Saturday gives you breathing room to drop the road game in Tuscaloosa in a little less than a month, where you’re currently a double-digit underdog. From there, you have to win your home games and beat a Florida team that very well may have an interim coach by that point in the season. The game against Florida on Nov. 22 has all the makings of a win-and-you-are-in spot for the Vols and the CFP. Granted, if Tennessee heads to The Swamp with two losses and in control of their own CFP destiny, well, we all know that week, and game for that matter, will be as stressful a time as we’ve seen on Rocky Top since that horrifying trip to Columbia, SC, in 2022.