3 Thoughts & 1 Prediction: No. 14 Tennessee vs. No. 18 Oklahoma
The Vols will need to beat the Sooners to keep their College Football Playoff dreams alive.
The Dark Mode uniforms are back for the No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday night in Neyland Stadium. In all likelihood, the Vols’ primetime game against No. 18 Oklahoma will be a de facto CFP elimination game between the two SEC programs. Under head football coach Josh Heupel, Tennessee has lost just two home games since the start of the 2022 season, and both were to Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs.
Could the Sooners become the second team to beat Tennessee in Knoxville since the beginning of the 2022 season? It’s certainly possible, but I don’t think it’s likely on Saturday night.
Let’s dive into my three thoughts and one prediction for the ball game.
A lot of folks are wondering how Tennessee’s high-powered vertical passing game will fare against Oklahoma’s defense on Saturday night. I, too, have questions about how the offense will fare against a very stingy Sooners’ defense, but that’s very different than having concerns about the offense against the aforementioned Sooners’ defense. The Vols are No. 1 in scoring against fellow SEC teams this season, and they’re averaging 38.6 in five conference games. This includes two games against two of the top-3 teams in the conference, in Georgia and Alabama. In the two seasons that Tennessee has gone undefeated at home under Heupel– 2022 and 2024 – the Vols finished the season at No. 1 and No. 8, respectively, in scoring at home in all of FBS. The Vols No. 4 this year, sandwiched in between the two seasons the team won double-digit games. I think that matters. I wonder less about the Sooners’ defense in this game, and I wonder more about the Sooners’ offense. Head football coach Brent Venables’ team is averaging 20.5 points per game in SEC play, which is 104th in FBS. The Vols are nearly doubling that number in conference play. Then you throw in that the Sooners have played in just one true road conference game this season, against a really struggling South Carolina team at 12:45 EST, along with the fact that they’re averaging 16 points per game against ranked SEC teams. I really have my doubts that Oklahoma’s offense will keep pace with Tennessee in this ball game.
That being said, with how bad things are right now across the board for the Vols’ defense, the takeaways and then capitalizing on them will need to continue against Oklahoma. Tennessee turned two forced turnovers into two touchdowns against Kentucky last Saturday night. Redshirt freshman safety Edrees Farooq had a pick-six, and freshman linebacker Jadon Perlotte jumped on a hilarious Wildcat fumble sequence that gave the Vols the ball at Kentucky’s own six-yard line. Those two plays were the difference between Tennessee winning the game against Kentucky by a comfortable 22 points rather than just eight points. Tennessee might not be able to win this game with just one sack like they had last week in Lexington. This defensive line has never been healthier, so it’s time for them to get back on track at home against the Sooners. This feels like a big game for redshirt sophomore Caleb Herring, senior Joshua Josephs, and redshirt sophomore Daevin Hobbs. If this trio has a productive night, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Vols don’t come out with a victory.
Listen via Apple l Spotify l iHeartRadio l Download l RSS l YouTube l PodBean l Amazon l GoodPods l Castro
Am I wildly off base for thinking this game is the biggest Gimme Game, if there even is one in this conference in 2025, left on the Vols’ schedule this fall? Tennessee hasn’t won in Gainesville since 2003, and No. 9 Vanderbilt is certainly a better football team than Oklahoma as the calendar turns to November. Every conference game has been arduous for Tennessee this fall, with an average margin of victory of 10.6. However, those thin margins were true in most of Tennessee’s victories in conference play last season, too. Five of the Vols’ eight conference games last season were decided by 10 points or less in 2024. In 2023, that number was just two. Simply put, close conference games have become a staple for the SEC in 2025, but for Tennessee, it’s been a staple since 2024. The best news for Vol fans who are tired of the nail-biting finishes this season is that Tennessee is 5-2 in those seven SEC games decided by 10 points or less.
Final Prediction
I think Tennessee wins this game by double-digits. The Vols’ pass rush gets back on track at home, and Oklahoma is unable to string together enough long scoring drives that end with touchdowns to keep pace with Heupel’s team. Give me Tennessee 38-20 in a statement win for the Vols.