The American League Should Be Filled With Buyers
There are so many teams that could win the AL pennant this season.
The Atlanta Braves are elite. The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers, too. These three clubs also boast the three best records in the National League. They all maintain a positive run differential over 100, the only three teams in the NL with such high marks. The Washington Nationals, who have been one of the most pleasant surprises through mid-June, are fourth in run differential in the NL at +16. The gulf between the Braves, the Dodgers, and the Brewers as we inch closer to July is vast. To be sure, Milwaukee is just 4.5 games up on another pleasant surprise this season, the St. Louis Cardinals, in the NL Central. The Braves are up 7 games on the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Dodgers are up 9 games on the San Diego Padres. There is a Big Three in the NL, so it’s fair to wonder just how many sellers there will be on that side of the sport compared to the other side, where chaos reigns supreme.
The other side is the American League.
There is exactly one team with over 40 wins and a positive run differential of over 100, the New York Yankees. The only other team with 40-plus wins, the Tampa Bay Rays, have a bit of a troubling run-differential of plus-6, even though they’re twelve games over .500. The Chicago White Sox lead in the AL. The Houston Astros are seven games below .500 and just 4.5 games out of first place in the AL West. If the playoffs began today, one AL Wildcard team would have a losing record – the Athletics. With the nature of this League in 2026, could we have two iterations of the 2010 Seattle Seahawks? It’s plausible, even if unlikely, because anything in this League seems is plausible at the moment.
The NL is like the Big Ten in college football this season. Extremely top-heavy with a handful of teams that can win it all. The Ohio States, the Michigans, the Oregons, the Indianas.
Then a huge drop-off.
The AL is like the Big 12 in college football this season. Even the top team, the Yankees, has its warts, particularly with Aaron Judge, the team’s best player, out for a while due to injury. The traditional topsy-turvy nature of the Big 12 is how I see the AL this season. There are just so many different teams that I could see winning the pennant. The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles have lots of ground to make up to catch the Yankees or Rays, but both could quite easily earn two of the three Wild Card spots. Outside of the Kansas City Royals, everyone else can win the AL Central. Same with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the AL West. Did I already mention that the Chicago White Sox lead the AL Central, and it’s June 17? The team that has averaged fifty wins over the last two seasons sits alone in first place in one of the three AL divisions.
Lots of That’s Baseball stuff all around the AL. Truly.
In the NL, you understand if Arizona doesn’t get bold ahead of the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline. Or the Washington Nationals. Or the Chicago Cubs. The Phillies and the Padres should because when Dave Dombrowski and AJ Preller elect to cash in more chips, that is always entertaining, and, as I’ve written before, should always be encouraged when so many of their peers operate in a starkly different manner. The Braves, the Dodgers, and the Brewers should do Obvious Contender Buyer Things. Atlanta has to add a starter, and maybe an outfield bat, too. (Jose Soriano and Jorge Soler, perhaps?) Los Angeles could look to add a starter, like Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, but with a lockout looming, let’s hope not. Milwaukee could add another starter, perhaps in that Brandon Sproat spot in the rotation. Although Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Milwaukee are in the top-4 in Team ERA, along with the Yankees. (Teams with a great Team ERA sit atop the MLB standings this season. More at 11!)
In the AL, the Minnesota Twins could get nuts. Byron Buxton has been excellent. Joe Ryan has been excellent. I’d like to see Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll be bold and throw a little caution to the wind this summer. The Twins’ four best hitters in terms of WRC+ this season are all 29-plus. Minnesota has made the postseason one time in the last six seasons, and as you can see with Chicago, it’s a weird year in that division. Do something bold and try to be what the Tigers thought they would be this year.
Baltimore seems consistently unlucky, but they’re still 2.5 games out of an AL wild card spot. Orioles general manager Mike Elias has drafted well, but now might be the time to continue to take big swings and part with some of them for a big-time starter.
The Rangers and the Astros are projected to finish with 80 and 77 wins, respectively, per Fangraphs’ playoff projection model. Both Texas teams already won their championships, but both are still on the high end in terms of team payroll, with Houston at No. 7, per Spotrac. For Houston, they had the look of the most intriguing seller team potentially. Now, with how open the AL is, do they feel froggy and go for it? It’s easy to forget that Seattle was four games below .500 the last week of May.
There are so many different things that so many of these different teams in the AL could do that would completely shake up the AL pennant picture. That’s unique to the AL this season. There are teams that a lot of these teams could talk to, like the Mets, the San Francisco Giants, the Cincinnati Reds, the Tigers, the Angels, and the Boston Red Sox. Skubal, Logan Webb, Freddy Peralta, Eugenio Suárez, Soriano, et cetera, et cetera. So many names, for so many teams that should be bold and talk themselves into winning the AL pennant this fall because they can win the AL pennant this fall. So, so many different teams could make it out of the AL this fall. That’s not how it is in the NL, but the stark contrast in the two leagues this year is pretty neat. I hope most of the AL executives see it this way, too.