Are the Raptors in the Most Unenviable Spot in the NBA?
What to think about the present and the future if you're a Toronto fan right now.
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The Toronto Raptors are smack dab in the middle of the Eastern Conference. At 39-29, Toronto would be the No. 5 seed in the NBA Playoffs if the season started today. The Raptors are likely to finish with their best record since their 2021-22 squad that won 48 games and lost in the first round of the playoffs. The Raptors under Darko Rajakovic have gotten a little bit better each of the last three seasons. It’s a similar rise to that of former Raptors head coach Dwane Casey, who went on his first three seasons at the helm after replacing Jay Triano. Toronto went from 23 to 34 to 48 wins in those first three seasons under Casey. Interestingly enough, the Raptors’ Net Rating in Year 3 under Casey was +3.5, and it’s now +2.2, good for 12th in the NBA. Casey guided those Raptors teams in the mid-2010s to 48 or more wins for five consecutive seasons. Is history about to repeat itself in Toronto?
The Raptors’ preseason win-loss projection was 39.5, and with 14 games remaining on their schedule, Toronto should clear that number with ease. Coming into the year, Toronto had finished the regular season with a winning record just once in the last six seasons. The preseason expectation was more in the Play-In Zone, but to Rajakovic’s credit, the team has exceeded preseason expectations and could certainly make it out of the first round in the East for the first time since 2020. Toronto is 6th in the NBA in defensive rating, and their Expected W82 is 47.4, so right at that 48-win total, the 2021-22 Raptors team hit.
Toronto had two players make the All-Star team this year in Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram. Barnes and Ingram, along with Jakob Poetl, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett, are all signed through next season. That’s important, as the five-man unit that’s totaled 647 possessions together is +10.7. In fact, Toronto’s top-6 lineups in possessions played all have positive plus-minuses. It’s a solid team across the board. The Raptors are a solid professional basketball team that is also having a very solid season in the NBA.
It has to be a bit of a sigh of relief for Bobby Webster and Toronto’s front office that the Raptors are playing at the level of a team pushing for fifty wins in the East, per CleaningTheGlass. We already knew the team nailed the Scottie Barnes selection years ago. In three of the last four seasons, Barnes has been in the 80-plus percentile in Efficiency Differential. Barnes is a winning player in so many ways, but he is shooting 29 percent from three this season, his second-worst percentage in his young NBA career. However, he also has the best eFG% of his career this season. Through five seasons, his shot diet has never included enough threes to account for 30-plus percent of his overall attempts. Barnes is just a very unique best player to have on a very solid team in 2026.
It’s fair to wonder with this team if they can be the Detroit Pistons of next season. The Pistons won 44 games a season ago and sit at 50-19 with thirteen games remaining in the regular season. The key difference is the ceiling, particularly on offense, between the Pistons’ star Cade Cunningham and Barnes. So there are some obvious similarities and some key differences between the two franchises. The Raptors’ calling card is their defense. Both are top-10 defenses this year, but the Pistons are right on the line of having a top-10 offense. It’s imperative to be in the top 10 in both to be a serious contender, as the Raptors were fifth in both metrics when they won the title in the 2018-19 season. The biggest wonder this year has been if the Pistons could get into the top-10 in offensive efficiency, and I suspect the same will be true for Toronto if this season is the start of another great run in Raptors basketball. You know they can defensively, but, as of right now, you have to really squint to see a top-10 offense in their immediate future.
Perhaps a lot of it comes down to the development of Ja’Kobe Walter, a 2024 first-round pick. Or maybe it’s their 2025 Lottery pick out of South Carolina, Collin Murray-Boyles. The latter has been a plus-player in the 5-man lineups he’s played the most with this season. He’s played with two five-man lineups that have amassed more than 100 possessions together this season to a final total of +13.6. Murray-Boyles’ shot chart is significantly different than Poetl’s and is likely a big factor in where Toronto’s offense can go in the next couple of seasons, particularly next to Barnes at the 4. Similarly, Walter’s development in the backcourt is also important. With a modern shot-chart diet of threes and shots at the rim, what he ultimately evolves into on the offensive end matters for Toronto. 61 percent of his shots this season are threes, and he’s shooting better than league average at 37 percent. He’s shooting a super-efficient 44 percent on corner 3s, too. RJ Barrett will be an expiring contract next season, so Toronto needs to find out what Walter is or could be sooner rather than later.
Early returns on Murray-Boyles and Walter have been good. The Raptors have seemingly advanced out of the Lottery for a while, which makes Murray-Boyles and Walter, too, extremely important over the next several seasons. Ingram has been a success story and an All-Star in Toronto. Quickley and Barrett have been excellent in their increased roles. Poetl’s a seemingly Forever Solid big. It’s been a surprise to see Toronto be firmly out of the Play-In conversation this season, but the Raptors are in the middle of the East now. It can get old fast for fanbases to be stuck there, just as it can get old fast for fanbases to be stuck in the Play-In. Toronto probably needs some development luck with Murray-Boyles or Walter to move out of the middle, or maybe it’s just Barnes reaching another unexpected level offensively. Either way, the Raptors are a good team that figures to be good for the next couple of seasons. There is nothing harder in sports than going from good to elite, and that’s now the big question that faces Toronto this season and beyond.