The More Fascinating Josh Heupel Conversation
What to make of Josh Heupel's time at Tennessee as Year 5 on Rocky Top is nearing its conclusion.
It goes without saying that Josh Heupel has done a great job at Tennessee. Or at least it should. If the College Football Playoff had already expanded the field to twelve before the 2022 college football season, the Volunteers would have qualified for the CFP two times in the last four seasons. With the Vols’ loss to Oklahoma on Saturday night in Neyland Stadium, the former national champion quarterback will, in all likelihood, not take Tennessee to back-to-back CFP appearances. That is naturally disappointing for Vol fans, but it should be reassuring that the program has been built back up to the point that getting eliminated from CFP contention in early November elicits this kind of pain and frustration.
Things are pretty good on Rocky Top right now, but that doesn’t mean there is not room for improvement for the Tennessee football program. There are fair critiques to have about Heupel’s game-management choices a lot of times this season. On the offensive side of the ball, those new offensive wrinkles we heard rumblings about have come to fruition this season. The Vols are No. 2 in passing yards per game this season and No. 1 in Yards Per Attempt in the SEC. In 2024 and 2023, Tennessee threw 12 and 9 touchdown passes in conference play, respectively. Still, with two conference games remaining this year, quarterback Joey Aguilar has already thrown for 13 and is on pace to come up just a few touchdowns short of catching Hendon Hooker’s 21 touchdowns in 2022. The biggest question I had coming into this season for Heupel was whether or not Tennessee’s offense could evolve after back-to-back years of maddening struggles in the passing game, and his staff has done just that.
Instead, my mind drifts more towards the defense in 2026 and beyond. I think it’s hard not to be very bullish on the Tennessee offense, with all the key playmakers set to be back in 2026. Defensively, I think defensive coordinator Tim Banks’ unit should be better, but I’m not as bullish as I am with the offense. Part of that is simply due to more roster attrition on the defensive side of the ball, where Banks may lose three players who go in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft with Jermod McCoy, Colton Hood, and Joshua Josephs. You could also lose top linebacker Arion Carter to the draft, not to mention the possibility that your top-two snap-getters at STAR are unlikely to be back next season. There are a lot of young pieces to like, but you don’t have to squint too hard to see a scenario where the Vols’ defense is closer to the 2025 version than the 2024 version in 2026.
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What’s interesting about the coaching carousel this cycle is how many highly-touted defensive coordinators might be available because of it. All the conversation has been about which head coaches are going where, but what about where some of these key assistants land for 2026? Ohio State head football coach Ryan Day won the coordinator lottery in 2024 when he paired veteran offensive whiz and former UCLA coach Chip Kelly with veteran defensive magician Jim Knowles. You wonder what South Carolina might look like this year if Dowell Logains had not left for the Appalachian State head-coaching job this past offseason or if Mike Denbrock had not left Baton Rouge to go back to South Bend two offseasons ago. Miami head football coach Mario Cristobal’s decision to snag the Minnesota defensive coordinator looked to be a gigantic deal before the Hurricanes’ loss at SMU on Saturday. (Miami went from 68th to 9th in scoring defense this year.)
With Brian Kelly out at LSU, defensive coordinator Blake Baker is out there. With James Franklin out at Penn State, Knowles is out there. With Hugh Freeze out at Auburn, D.J. Durkin is out there. Because of how crazy this coaching carousel is trending to be, this might be Heupel’s best chance to take a huge swing that he might not have in any other normal year. That’s because Banks is a good defensive coordinator, and the defensive staff that he’s assembled is a great one. Banks has surrounded himself with sharp, veteran defensive minds in Rodney Garner, Levorn ‘Chop’ Harbin, William Inge, and Willie Martinez – he even added former NFL defensive coordinator Alan Williams as an analyst this offseason, too. I would understand if Heupel moved forward with Banks and that staff in 2026, but I would also get it if he went big-fish hunting this cycle, too, simply because of how unique it is across the board.
The same could be true for the offensive staff. If Baylor moves on from Dave Aranda, does Heupel look at somebody like Jake Spavital, who has overseen the Bears’ potent passing game the last two years with Sawyer Robertson under center? Offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Joey Halzle has been solid at Tennessee post-Alex Golesh, but the question is whether or not you think you could, or should, try and upgrade at that spot? With the game-management questions for Heupel this season, does it make sense going into Year 6 for Heupel to hire a Spavital-type to pair with offensive analyst Seth Littrell to allow him to be more of a CEO in 2026? Do you go after a sitting head coach like North Texas head coach Eric Morris or San Diego State’s Sean Lewis for an offensive coordinator role to add even more experience to that side of the ball, like Banks has on defense?
Heupel should not be on the hot seat. Nor do I think he is or will be anytime soon. However, I do think it’s fair to wonder if this offseason is the time to take huge swings at either of the coordinator spots. You could make the case either way for both sides of the ball, and that’s why it interests me. There isn’t a right or wrong answer to it. Tennessee’s final three ball games may play a pivotal role in where this all goes.