The Battle For The Middle: Reds vs Pirates
The NL Central is oddly an extremely important division this year.
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The NL Central is an odd division. It’s been an odd division for a long time. If you’re a Chicago Cubs or Milwaukee Brewers fan, 2026 could prove to be your club’s year. Indeed, the NL Central division winner has won the World Series twice in the last twenty years. The Cubs last won it in 2016, and the St. Louis Cardinals won it in 2006. It’s like that even-year title run by the San Francisco Giants in 2010, 2012, and 2014. With the Los Angeles Dodgers continuing to be the Dodgers, I don’t suspect that there is a lot of belief that the winner of what has been consistently the worst division in the NL for years now will win the World Series this year. If they do, though, that would mean the NL Central champion will have won the World Series exactly one time exactly one decade apart in 2006, 2016, and 2026.
That would be pretty cool.
What would also be pretty cool is if one of Cincinnati or Pittsburgh surpasses the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. The Brewers have won the division for years in a row. They’ve won 90-plus games four out of the last five seasons, but they’ve made the NLCS just once over that span. When the Brew Crew finally advanced to the NLCS in 2025, they were promptly dispatched by the Dodgers in a 4-to-0 sweep. We all respect the Brewers, but don’t we all, outside of Milwaukee fans, want to see a different NL Central team take that 90-win leap to contend against the Cubs in 2026?
That could be the Cincinnati Reds or the Pittsburgh Pirates. I don’t suspect a lot of casual sports fans are aware that Frangraphs’ projections like the latter a good bit in 2026. The Fighting Paul Skenes are projected to have a winning record in 2026, something the club has not achieved since 2018. The Pirates won 82 games that season but still missed the postseason. The Bucs haven’t made the postseason since 2015. The Reds have had a bit more success of late, winning 83 games last season and not advancing past the NL Wild Card round. The Reds haven’t been to the World Series in my 34 years on this planet, and the Pirates haven’t been since my father was in elementary school. Interestingly enough, both clubs won the World Series when they did make it.
The Pirates edge the Reds out in 2026 intrigue. Every baseball fan knows how good Skenes is. What every baseball fan might not know is how good Konnor Griffin and Bubba Chandler could also be. In fact, two different ESPN MLB analysts differed on their Rookie of the Year picks, but both were Pirates – Griffin and Chandler. If Skenes, Griffin, and Chandler all hit for general manager Ben Cherrington, Pittsburgh very well may have a stew going.
The Reds signed Eugenio Suarez to be their DH in 2026. The 34-year-old played in Cincy from 2015-2021 and was an All-Star last season with the Seattle Mariners. The club also already has their Konnor Griffin in Elly De La Cruz. The latter was 15th in the NL last season in bWAR, a team-best. The Reds’ top pick and flamethrower in the 2024 MLB Draft, Chase Burns, pitched just 43 innings for the club last year. Fangraphs projects the former No. 2 overall pick to have a 3.52 FIP this season. He’s also projected to account for a WAR of 2.9 this season, the same figure Atlanta ace Chris Sale accumulated last season. If Burns takes that kind of step in Cincy’s rotation, pairing with Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, the Reds certainly could find their way into the 90-win club.
There is a path for one of the Reds or Pirates to break through in 2026 as an upper-echelon team in the NL. There is a path where they, along with the Cubs and Brewers, are all bunched together between 80 and 90 wins. The Cubs and Brewers are the favorites, but the Reds and Pirates are close. It’s not going to get national attention, but man, monitoring the Reds vs. Pirates battle to break through in the NL Central is going to be fun. If recent history continues, the winner of the NL Central could very well be your 2026 MLB World Series champions, too.