Which NL East Disaster Should We Have Seen Coming More: The Mets or the Phillies?
Former FanGraphs & Sports Illustrated MLB writer Jon Tayler and I discuss in our first email back-and-forth on the subject.
Editor’s Note: Jon was a longtime fixture on ‘The Chase Thomas Podcast,’ and our weekly MLB check-ins are something that I very much miss. With the pod on an indefinite hiatus, I thought it might be fun to check in with my friend Jon and email back and forth about an MLB topic and see how it goes.
Thomas: Which NL East disaster should we have seen coming more: the Mets or the Phillies?
Tayler: The easy answer to this question is “the Mets” because the easy answer to any question about which disaster was foreseeable is always “the Mets”. But I want to zag and say the Phillies, largely because the Mets actually tried this offseason, while the Phillies sat around and counted the days until spring training. That’s not to say the Mets had a perfect winter, because they certainly did not. The plan at first base was to hand it to someone in Jorge Polanco who had never played the position before; the plan at second base was Marcus Semien coming off the worst season of his entire career; the plan in center field was “Luis Robert Jr. until he breaks down” (which, for the record, was all of 24 games). But on the other hand, David Stearns went out and added a reliable top-of-the-rotation starter in Freddy Peralta and a good top-of-the-order hitter in Bo Bichette, and even if Devin Williams and Luke Weaver floundered last year in the Bronx, they still represented two of the best relief pitcher options on the market.
The Phillies, on the other hand, re-signed Kyle Schwarber in early December and then settled in for a long winter nap. Granted, re-upping with Schwarber was a good idea no matter the cost, but the rest of the offseason reeked of few ideas and even less enthusiasm to execute them. To replace Nick Castellanos, a dead man walking in Philadelphia since the end of October, the Phillies landed on Adolis Garcia, whose last good season at the plate was 2023. To the bullpen, which was crying out for reinforcements, all the Phillies could come up with was Brad Keller, a bad starter turned unlikely relief ace for the Cubs — not a bad move, but not one you’d associate with a title contender gearing up for another shot. And when the Mets gazumped Bichette out from under his nose, Dave Dombrowski’s comeback was... re-signing J.T. Realmuto, whose offensive output crumbled last year.
Part of the difficult calculus for Dombrowski is that his core is productive but expensive, leaving little financial room to bolster them. But it felt going into the year that the Phillies’ plan for supporting their stars was built more on hope than reality — that Taijuan Walker would turn the clock back, or that Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter would hit the ground running as rookies, or that, most crucially of all, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott would take the step from uneven complimentary roster pieces to steady producers. The cracks were there to see before Opening Day, and while the severity of the Phillies’ struggles might have been unexpected, the fact that things have gone sideways shouldn’t be a surprise.
Thomas: You’re right, it’s always ‘The Mets’, isn’t it? Even if it isn’t this time. The Mets certainly did try, but there were also warning signs with just how much David Stearns was trying this offseason. It’s not like Pete Alonso is having an AL MVP-worthy season at the moment in Baltimore, but it was always a risk to let him walk and take a big gamble on Jorge Polanco. It felt like they fell into Bo Bichette, too, didn’t they, after the Kyle Tucker debacle? To me, it seemed like New York attempted to do too much in one offseason.
The Mets certainly did a lot more than the Phillies this offseason. However, I think there was more reason for urgency in New York than in Philadelphia. The Phillies won 96 games last season and 95 the year before. They’ve won at least 90 games over the last three seasons. Dave Dombrowski should have done more than just re-signing Adolis Garcia, but if the Mets don’t swipe Bichette away from Philadelphia in stunning fashion, how much would that change your perspective on their offseason? The Phillies felt more proven and safe than the Mets, and while their age was going to catch up to them at some point, I didn’t think it’d be this dramatic to start the year.
Tajuan Walker was a disaster of a signing, but the drop in production from Aaron Nola, I think is fair to say has been a surprise. With Zack Wheeler back, their top three of Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Jesus Luzarado is a really good one. I still like a whole lot more about this Phillies team than I do the Mets. Dombrowski has pushed a lot of the correct buttons in Philadelphia the last few years, and while he didn’t press many this offseason, I can’t say I blame him after winning so many games the last two years.
It’s the Mets for me.
Tayler: I also think the Phillies are, by and large, the better roster right now, though that’s thanks mostly to the injuries that New York has suffered. There was no version of a Mets team without Francisco Lindor that was going to contend, and it’s probably not a coincidence that they went 3-12 while Juan Soto was on the injured list. As of right now, the Mets are missing not only Lindor but also Polanco and Robert, as well as their backup shortstop in Ronny Mauricio and the generally useful Jared Young. The result is a patchwork lineup with way too much MJ Melendez and Tyrone Taylor in the mix. And the less said about the disintegration of Kodai Senga, the better.
It also can’t be stressed enough that the Phillies’ opening stretch of hell came against a tough slate: from April 13 through 26, they only played the Cubs and Braves and went a gag-inducing 2-11 against two of the NL’s best teams. Since then, things have predictably gone better, with Philadelphia ripping off eight wins in nine games against the woeful Giants, the spunky-but-limited Marlins, and the uneven A’s. And things don’t get appreciably tougher until a West Coast swing against the Padres and Dodgers starting on Memorial Day, giving the Phillies plenty more time to right the ship. Helping matters, too, are the returns of Wheeler, Realmuto and Jhoan Duran; the Phillies are at full health, and it shows.
All of which is to say, I think I’m coming around to your argument that it’s the Mets, because while the Phillies were an abject catastrophe to start the season, they’ve rapidly found equilibrium, whereas it’s hard to see how this compromised version of the Mets can do the same. Lindor and Robert will be down for a while, and Polanco might be limited all season. New York climbing back into contention will depend heavily on Bichette finding his stroke, on Brett Baty and Mark Vientos reaching their potential, on Carson Benge making the adjustment to MLB pitching, on Semien finding the Fountain of Youth, on Williams avoiding blowups, and most importantly, on everyone staying healthy. Neither team has much of a margin for error left, but in the Mets’ case, they need more to go right at this point than the Phillies do.
Thomas: Man, that is a whole heck of a lot of things that need to go right for the Mets, and fast. I do wonder what Bichette is thinking about all of this, besides getting to play shortstop again? Very quickly, he’s become John Travolta in that PULP FICTION scene. I wonder what the Mets’ last two huge offseason signees — Bichette and Juan Soto — are thinking about their decisions here in early May?
It seems very unlikely that both teams are ultimately able to get up off the mat, and to your point, it is already looking like the team more likely to pull it off is the Phillies. It’s funny how different a brutal start to the season can be for a franchise. Last year, a disastrous start for Atlanta proved to be too much for the Braves to overcome. In 2019, the Washington Nationals started 19-31 and won the World Series.
As you wrote, you can very easily and understandably explain the Phillies’ brutal start — injuries and a brutal early schedule. If you’re Bichette, though, are you having second thoughts about not ultimately choosing the Phillies? If you’re Soto, though, are you having second thoughts about not ultimately choosing the New York Yankees? The Phillies seem to have just needed better schedule luck and to get more key guys healthy to get back on track.
The Mets feel like a college football powerhouse that relied too much on the transfer portal and not enough on player development and player retention. They feel like 2025 LSU a bit. New York overhauled their roster because there is a healthy appetite to win and win big. The same was true for the Tigers in Baton Rouge last year with their No. 1 overall transfer portal class. The season was a disaster, their head coach got fired, and they were one of the sport’s biggest disappointments. Well, they followed that up with another No. 1 overall transfer portal class and a new head coach.
One bright spot, if you’re a Mets fan, is that you have an owner who really wants to get this right. That’s not a universal perspective in this sport. This season is likely a wash, but New York is not doomed to be a perpetual cellar dweller like the Colorado Rockies or Los Angeles Angels for years to come. I’d actually be more nervous about being a Phillies fan after this year than a Mets fan. When it’s truly over in Philadelphia, it’s going to be a brutal transition. New York can claw their way out of this hole, just not this season. That work begins in December.