3 Thoughts and 1 Prediction: Can No. 11 Tennessee Beat No. 6 Alabama?
The Vols were a couple of red zone miscues away from pulling it off the last time Tennessee traveled to Tuscaloosa.
The last time No. 11 Tennessee played at No. 6 Alabama, I watched the game, along with hundreds of other Vol fans, in Printers Alley in New York City with my wife and a few of our close friends. Even with all the offensive issues coming into the game for that 2023 Tennessee team, you forgot all about it once the game got going. That absurd Squirrel White touchdown reception to put Tennessee up 7-0 early was exactly the kind of thing the Vols needed to lay the groundwork for their first victory in Tuscaloosa since 2003. Still, the margin of error is always thin in these kinds of games. Because the Vols settled for two field goals in the red zone in the first half, Tennessee went into the half with just a two-score lead that quickly evaporated once Alabama received the football to start the second half. If Tennessee had just punched it in one more time for six in the first half, similar to Auburn's performance against Georgia last Saturday, I am still convinced the Vols will end the losing streak at Alabama in 2023.
But we’ll never know for sure.
What we do know is that the Third Saturday in October is a special deal, and anything can happen between the Volunteers and the Crimson Tide on Saturday under the lights in Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Let’s dive into my three thoughts and one prediction for the ball game.
It may not feel like it, but Tennessee will win at Tuscaloosa again at some point. As I wrote in the intro of this very piece, the Vols dominated the Tide in the first half on the road in 2023, but their touchdown woes in the red zone proved to be the difference in pulling off the upset. One of the other obvious reasons this streak has lasted as long as it has is quite simple: Nick Saban was on the sidelines for the Tide for most of those games in Tuscaloosa. Tennessee never beat Saban in Tuscaloosa, but now they won’t have to with Kalen DeBoer in charge. It already feels like forever ago, but two weeks ago, Vanderbilt was a couple of red zone miscues away from perhaps upsetting the Tide in back-to-back seasons, only this time on the road in Tuscaloosa. With DeBoer being so good against top-10 teams as a head football coach, it probably helps that the Vols are just outside the top-10 in this week’s AP poll. Yes, DeBoer has been very good at home since taking over at Alabama, but the Commodores, like the Vols in 2023, were a couple of red zone plays away from winning the football game in Tuscaloosa. The last time the Vols traveled to Tuscaloosa, they were the worst SEC team in scoring touchdowns once they reached the red zone. It proved to be the difference. This year, the Vols are in the middle of the pack. I can’t shake the feeling that how the Vols finish a drive or two in the red zone will ultimately decide Tennessee’s fate on Saturday night.
One of the biggest reasons the Tide have beaten Georgia in back-to-back seasons is the hole they have dug Kirby Smart’s teams into in the first half both years. Coming back from being down ten late in the first half, as the Dawgs did last week on The Plains, versus 17-0 is a huge difference. Coming back from a 20-7 hole in 2023 versus a 24-7 hole is a big difference, which is what Alabama did against Tennessee. For the Vols to win this football game, Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar has to do all he can to put the team in orange and white up three-plus scores going into the half. A close game at the half feels like a huge win for the Crimson Tide. Tennessee has scored on its opening drive in every game this season. That obviously must continue on the road here on Saturday night. This is a better team than the 2023 bunch, but this is a better Alabama team, I think, than that 2023 team, too. You don’t need four quarters of above-average play from Tennessee’s defense to win this game; you may only need two if things break right for the Vols’ offense. Every Vol fan is worried about this defense, and understandably so, but what the offense does in the first half and in the red zone will decide this game.
I am also curious to find out what things I think I know about this Tennessee football team in 2025 that continue to be true against Alabama. I think the Vols’ sack totals are sustainable with how healthy Tennessee’s defensive line is right now and the level to which Joshua Josephs, Daevin Hobbs, Tyre West, Caleb Herring, and Jordan Ross have flashed through six games. I think the Vols’ forcing key turnovers is sustainable, at least for the most part, because I think those guys will continue to make plays and hit the quarterback, and because cornerback Colton Hood has proven himself to be a legitimate ballhawk in this Volunteer secondary. I also think Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson will shred this Tennessee secondary on key third downs where the Vols don’t get home. I don’t know what linebackers coach William Inge’s rotation will be without Edwin Spillman in the first half, but I’m very curious to find out. I also think Chris Brazzell II has shown a knack for coming up huge in big games of late. He obviously had the biggest catch of the game against the Tide last season, but he also balled out against Georgia at home and on the road against Mississippi State, where he went over 100 yards in each game. (Note: His final tally should have been over 150 yards receiving and two touchdowns if not for the horrific offensive pass interference call on Brazzell II that wiped away a huge score for Tennessee.) I think Brazzell II is going to have a big game on Saturday night, and the Vols might need a Georgia-like effort again to pull off the upset.
Prediction: Ultimately, I think Tennessee is going to be in this game late in the fourth quarter. The pressure is on Alabama here, as the Vols still have a good shot to win out and reach the CFP even with a loss in Tuscaloosa. I think the Vols have a real shot here, but I’ll still go with Alabama wins 42-38.