Is the Early Tennessee Win Total Projection Cause for Concern?
Where do the Vols sit right before Spring Practice kicks off on Rocky Top?
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Well, FanDuel released its early 2026 SEC win total projections this week. That obviously included the Tennessee Volunteers, who now sit at 7.5 wins, a number shared by fellow SEC rivals Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and Florida. Interestingly enough, this will be the third straight season Tennessee’s preseason win total projection has fallen from the previous season. In 2024, it was 9.5 wins. Following Nico Iamaleava’s stunning spring departure the following season, it was 8.5 wins. With an additional conference game and an early road game on The Flats against Georgia Tech this season, it’s down to 7.5 wins.
Even with the additional conference game on the docket, and no Joey Aguilar or big-time, veteran transfer quarterback under center, that 7.5 total feels about right. 6.5 was too low, but 8.5 would have been too high. Head football coach Josh Heupel has won fewer than eight games just once at Tennessee. Even with so much change this offseason, particularly on defense and the defensive coaching staff, along with the uncertainty at quarterback, Heupel has earned the benefit of the doubt.
However, one of the major worries I have about Tennessee’s schedule next season is the long wait before the first bye week for the Vols. Whether it’s redshirt freshman George MacIntyre or true freshman Faizon Brandon under center, they will face Texas, Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama, and South Carolina before that first bye week. What makes the slate a bit easier – although easier feels like the wrong word there – is that the games against the Longhorns, Tigers, and Crimson Tide all take place in the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium. It’s fair to project that Arkansas and South Carolina, the two road games for Tennessee during that stretch, will be the weakest of the bunch amongst that group this fall.
It’s a better year to get Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Georgia Tech on the road. The Hawgs will look vastly different under new head coach Ryan Silverfield, with a projected win total of 4.5. The Gamecocks are already dealing with brutal injury luck on the offensive line with a projected win total of 5.5. The Commodores will go from a 24-year-old Heisman-worthy player at quarterback in Diego Pavia to an 18-year-old true freshman in Jared Curtis with a projected win total of 6.5. The Yellow Jackets lost their brilliant offensive coordinator, Buster Faulkner, to Florida, and their three-year starter at quarterback, Haynes King, who exhausted his eligibility with a projected win total of 6.5. This is not to say that I expect the Vols to beat all of these teams on the road this fall. However, outside of Tennessee’s visit to College Station on November 14 against Texas A&M, it’s not all that crazy to envision a world where Heupel’s team is favored in the majority of these ball games.
Tennessee will certainly have its hands full in Knoxville, though. Texas, LSU, and Alabama all have College Football Playoff aspirations and expectations. All might be favored the week they travel to Knoxville. One of the stranger aspects of Tennessee’s 2025 season was how the Vols fared at home. After not losing a home game in the 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons, the Vols went 1-3 at home against conference foes in 2025. Their lone home win against SEC competition was a one-score win over Arkansas. If you’re a glass-half-full person, you point to the Georgia loss in early September as to how advantageous playing in Neyland against big-time competition can still be, even in a down year. Is there a Tennessee fan or analyst who would have predicted before the season that the Vols’ best showing at home last year would be against Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs?
I suspect not, but that’s what happened. Sure, the result was not what any Vol fan hoped for, but for the first time in the Heupel era, Tennessee gave the Dawgs fits for four quarters. Aguilar tossed four touchdown passes and threw for nearly 400 yards. Chris Brazzell II had his breakout game against the back-to-back SEC champions with six catches for 177 yards and three scores. Yes, Tennessee did not win the ball game, but the Vols throwing all over the Dawgs for the first time in the Heupel vs. Smart series was an important development both for the team and the fanbase.
Before that ball game in September, Heupel had beaten Alabama twice. He had beaten Florida twice. He led the Vols to the College Football Playoff. He finished a season with the No. 1 scoring offense in FBS. He just hadn’t pushed Smart’s Bulldogs for four quarters. Of course, the Dawgs ultimately prevailed with a fourth-down throw for the ages, but the Vols were right there, in Neyland Stadium, to beat the team that would ultimately win the SEC once again.
Iamaleava did not lose a home game at Tennessee. Sure, the 2026 home slate is a lot tougher than the 2024 home slate, but it is workable. The Longhorns nearly fell to Kentucky and Mississippi State last season. LSU went 0-4 on the road in SEC play last season, albeit with a different coach. Lane Kiffin has been really good on the road in SEC play the last couple of seasons at Ole Miss, 5-3 overall, but winning on the road in this conference is hard. The Crimson Tide has traveled to Knoxville three times in the Heupel era, and they’ve lost all three ball games. Neyland Stadium is going to be rocking, particularly early, when Arch Manning and Texas visit Knoxville on September 26 to begin SEC play. That matters for those coin-flip, one-score games.
I don’t think the CFP is in the cards for Tennessee in 2026, but I do think the schedule is more workable than it might appear after a first glance. The Vols catch some teams on the road at a good time. The Vols catch some teams at home at a good time, too. The grind before the first bye week is a bit worrisome, but the Vols, particularly with Jim Knowles installed as the team’s new defensive coordinator, should hover around the eight-win mark this fall. A nine-win season with a nine-game conference schedule and a freshman quarterback would be dynamite, no question, but it’s a march to eight wins in the regular season for me, and while that would match last year’s disappointing final win total, the context could not be more different. Eight wins in the regular season this year would be a whole lot different than eight wins in the regular season last year.