Tennessee Football And The Great Unknown
Which way is the wind blowing for the Vols next season?
I have no earthly idea how the upcoming college football season is going to go for the Tennessee Volunteers. Over the last three seasons, the Vols have accumulated thirty wins. Head football coach Josh Heupel was a second-half collapse in Tuscaloosa in 2023 versus Alabama away from winning double-digit games in each of the last three seasons. The Vols were a controversial call away in overtime in the Music City Bowl against Purdue in 2021 away from winning at least eight games in all four seasons under Heupel. Pre-Heupel, the Vols had finished a football season with double-digit wins just one time since the conclusion of the 2004 season. Heupel has two double-digit win seasons over four years, joining legendary Tennessee head football coach Phillip Fulmer as the only other Vol football coach to win double-digit games in the 21st century. There is no question that Heupel has been the most successful of the five Tennessee head football coaches that have followed Fulmer.
And yet, even after a season where you reached the College Football Playoff for the first time in school history, I could not be more uncertain about where the Vols are headed in Year 5 of the Heupel era. It was not long ago that FanDuel had Tennessee’s win/loss over-under for next season at -9.5, which was tied for the highest in the SEC with Georgia, Texas and Alabama. Following redshirt sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s stunning departure a couple of weeks ago, that number dropped to -8.5. On the offensive side of the ball, there is uncertainty at quarterback, at wide receiver, at tackle, at center, and maybe even a bit at running back. On the defensive side of the ball, there is uncertainty at cornerback, at safety, and maybe even a bit at defensive end and defensive tackle.
It is important to note that uncertainty is not necessarily a negative thing. There was uncertainty surrounding all the roster turnover in the secondary leading up to last season only for the Vols to be better there than they were in 2023. Uncertainty, at times, is a necessary part of the team-building process each offseason.
Last offseason it was the secondary, but this offseason it is the wide receivers. If this was the lone position group where uncertainty was so prevalent in that room as it was for the secondary last offseason, I imagine it would be a whole lot easier for Vol fans to talk themselves into another season that ends with double-digit wins, even in the Post Nico world Tennessee now finds themselves in. The uncertainty at wide receiver is more about numbers less about ability. Outside of Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell II, every single wideout in wide receiver coach Kelsey Pope’s position room is a blue-chip player. The uncertainty is not whether or not the players that Pope has brought in the last two recruiting cycles have the potential to be stars at Tennessee. The uncertainty is that it only includes six players, three of which are true freshmen. As of this writing, the Vols have not been able to bolster the depth of that room with another upperclassmen transfer. However, if Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley stay healthy all season, that uncertainty with the available players in that room may not matter at all. That is certainly a viable possibility for the Vols in 2025.
The uncertainty does not end at wide receiver, though. Tennessee will have four new starters on the offensive line, two of which could be true freshman David Sanders and redshirt freshman William Satterwhite. Tennessee will have a new lead tailback in either Peyton Lewis or DeSean Bishop. Two of the most important pieces on the 2025 team, tight end Miles Kitselman and cornerback Jermod McCoy, are on the shelf due to injuries they suffered at different points in the offseason. The Vols need both Edwin Spillman and Jordan Burns to stay healthy and make a nice Year 2 leap at linebacker. They need Jordan Ross to make a Year 2 leap with James Pearce Jr. off to the NFL. They need Rickey Gibson II to take a Year 3 step. They might need sophomore STAR Boo Carter to develop into the best overall player on the team. With safeties Jakobe Thomas, Christian Charles and John Slaughter all gone, defensive coordinator Tim Banks needs sophomore Edrees Farooq and redshirt freshman Kaleb Beasley to take major steps.
You might find it a bit strange that after 700-plus words on the uncertainty of the 2025 Tennessee Volunteers, I have yet to spotlight the uncertainty at quarterback. Yes, Iamaleava is off to UCLA. Yes, your guess is as good as mine as to who will be under center for the Vols’ first offensive series against Syracuse in Atlanta on August 30 for the season opener. For most programs, that would be a bit disconcerting. For Heupel’s program, though, it is not. The Vols have won 19 games over the last two seasons with below-average production at quarterback. Tennessee was shut out in the first half for nearly a month straight of action last season, and they still won ten games and made the CFP. The Vols were 94th in passing yards per game in conference play last season. The Vols were 46th the year prior and 62nd in passing yards per game vs. teams ranked in the AP Poll. The magic of Tennessee’s passing attack in 2022 has been absent going on three years now, and all Heupel has done is nearly win twenty games in two years without it.
Yes, Iamaleava could have made a nice jump in his second year as a starter at Tennessee. We’ll never know which way things would have gone for the former five-star recruit in his third year in the program with so many new and young playmakers around him. As you flip the page you see it could be senior UCLA transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar who brings back some of that magic that made Hendon Hooker such a special quarterback at Tennessee from 2021-22. It could be redshirt freshman Jake Merklinger. It could even be true freshman George MacIntyre. Yes, the quarterback position is as uncertain as it’s been at Tennessee under Heupel since 2021, and while that first season did end with just seven wins, that was without what should be another elite season from Banks’ defense in Knoxville.
I have no earthly idea how many of these unknowns become positive knowns this fall for Tennessee. I have my suspicions, of course, like I do think if the young wide receivers stay healthy, they can produce more than last year’s older group. I do think the linebackers under William Inge will be the best Vol fans have seen in the Heupel era. I do think Rodney Garner will ensure the defensive line will reload just fine. Still, there are a whole lot of unknowns and uncertainties when it comes to Heupel’s team in Year 5 – it is not outlandish to forecast as many as ten wins or as little as seven wins for the Vols this fall. For a coach who has been as successful and consistent as Heupel since arriving at Tennessee in 2021, especially inside Neyland Stadium, that’s what makes this upcoming season so interesting in so many ways.