Wednesday Wonder: Who Is The Most Important Vol Against Ohio State?
Tennessee is going to need big games from several key stars to upset the Buckeyes on Saturday night.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State in Columbus on Saturday night has all the makings of a classic. That the Volunteers and the Buckeyes have only played one other time, in which the Vols won in 1997, is a cool factoid in of itself. One of the arguments for CFP expansion was for a matchup like this to happen in December. Two storied programs in the two power conferences in the sport are facing off in the most highly anticipated first-round game in this year’s CFP. In 2023, head football coach Ryan Day finished the season with losses to Michigan and Missouri. In 2024, will history repeat itself for Day with back-to-back losses to the Wolverines and an SEC team that finished the regular season with ten victories?
It’s certainly plausible. Maybe even probable depending on which Vol fan you ask about this game on Saturday night.
On today’s episode of my podcast, I asked the good folks at More Important Issues about who needs to be the MVP for Tennessee for the Vols to ultimately upset Ohio State and earn an opportunity to hand the Oregon Ducks their first loss this season in the Rose Bowl. They saw linebacker Arion Carter and wide receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr. as key MVP choices for the Vols. I tend to agree with both answers here.
In Tennessee’s two losses this season, both on the road, the Vols registered two sacks in total. Redshirt freshman quarter Nico Iamaleava threw zero touchdowns. The former five-star recruit also averaged roughly 5 YPA.
Against Arkansas, Carter, Will Brooks and Keenan Pili combined for 32 tackles. Against Georgia, the Vols’ entire defense had 37 tackles. The manner in which Tennessee tripped up in Fayetteville versus in Athens is a bit different. They both, however, provide clues as to what Vol fans should be monitoring on Saturday night against Ohio State on the stat sheet.
If Carter, Brooks and another linebacker like Jeremiah Telander are hovering around the thirty-tackle range, that’s not a good sign for the Tennessee pass rush or the Tennessee defense as a whole. It likely means the Buckeyes are converting a multitude of chunk plays against Tennessee, which killed this Vols defense against the Razorbacks and Bulldogs.
If Iamalaeava is averaging less than 7 or 8 YPA through the air, along with the Tennessee wide receivers averaging less than 10 YPR combined, that’s not a good sign for the Vols. Tennessee doesn’t have to light up a stingy Ohio State defense like they did Vanderbilt in the regular season finale, but they need one or two. Even in Norman, the Vols got one out of Dont’e Thorton Jr. that went for six. Whether that’s Squirrel White, Thornton, Bru McCoy, or Mike Matthews, it doesn’t matter, it just has to be one of those guys making at least one explosive play that goes for six. Miles Kitselman has come up huge for the Vols this season, but it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Vols escape with a victory in Columbus and he leads the team in YPC like he did in Athens. (Note: Thornton Jr. did have a 42-yard reception, the lone explosive pass play for the Vols at Arkansas, but he didn’t reach the endzone and the drive ended with a turnover on downs as the Vols lost the game in stunning fashion.)
I wonder, too, about Lance Heard and John Campbell Jr. and Dayne Davis. The trio are going to get tested by what may be the best defensive line they’ve faced this season. A lot of what hampered Iamaleava in the middle portion of the regular season was up and down play from the Tennessee offensive line, particularly the tackles. Yes, Tennessee needs the wide receivers to make plays down the field, but if the pass protection is not there all night that changes the game for the Vols. They were able to escape Oklahoma with a victory even with the offensive line getting pushed around. I’m not sure that can happen on Saturday and the Vols come away with a victory. To Heard, Campbell and Davis’s credit they’ve been solid down the stretch.
Lastly, I wonder about true freshman Boo Carter. I wrote about why I thought he might play a pivotal role in Tennessee’s path to victory over the Commodores in Nashville. Ultimately, that did not happen on special teams, but it didn’t matter because the Vols rolled to victory. In what should be a close game throughout, Carter once again strikes me as the kind wildcard that has an opportunity to play a sizeable role for Tennessee. Field position will matter, especially for Tennessee on the road in a venue where the Buckeyes do not lose at with any regularity. Carter nearly broke one for six against Georgia that would have been a huge momentum-shifter in the ball game. If he breaks one against Ohio State, could that end up being a pivotal swing in the game?
There are a lot of different elements to this game that I’m still wondering about going into this CFP game on Saturday night. Right now, these are the ones that I’m wondering about most.
Chase Thomas is the founder & publisher of Vols Hub, a Tennessee Volunteers sports publication. You can follow Chase on X, Bluesky, & Facebook. You can follow VH on X. Subscribe to Vols Hub today!