Is The 2025 Tennessee Early Over/Under Win Total Too High?
The Vols come in at 9.5 next season.
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Josh Heupel has raised the floor in his four seasons at Tennessee. The former national champion quarterback has won 74 percent of his games as a college football head coach. At Tennessee, Heupel has won 71 percent of his games. For added context, it’s the best winning percentage of any Vol coach since Phillip Fulmer who won 74 percent of his games at Tennessee. The difference, of course, is the longevity. Not only did Fulmer win 74 percent of his games as the head football coach at Tennessee, but he did so across 17 years. Only the legendary Bob Neyland was more successful over a longer period of time as the Volunteers head football coach. Still, there is no question that Heupel is the best head coach the Vols have had since Fulmer.
No question at all.
There, is a question, though, about Heupel’s team in Year 5 on Rocky Top. Many questions, in fact. Will the Tennessee vertical passing game bounce back? Will redshirt sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava break-through as a genuine Heisman-esque player? Will the Tennessee running game keep humming after losing star tailbacks to the NFL Draft in back-to-back seasons? Will true freshman five-star offensive tackle David Sanders be able to start and thrive out of the gate? Will redshirt sophomore left tackle Lance Heard bounce back protecting Iamaleava’s blindside? Will Tennessee’s offensive tempo return? Will Tennessee’s young and talented wideouts produce in a way Vol fans haven’t seen from their pass-catchers since 2022? These are all very fair questions for Heupel and Tennessee football going into the offseason and questions that I do not have the answer to.
For Tennessee, a lot of these questions have to have answers that are positive for the Vols to get back into the College Football Playoff next season. For Tennessee, you could reasonably argue that all of these questions have to have answers that are positive for the Vols to win a national championship next season. With Ohio State winning the national championship on Monday night in Atlanta, an interesting streak continued this college football season. Brian Fremeau from the excellent CFB analytics site BCF Toy tweeted this out on January 11, “ #1 in FEI has won the national championship in 7/17 seasons since 2007. #1 in DFEI has won the national championship in 10/17 seasons since 2007.” The Buckeyes were No. 1 in FEI, so the streak continues. Essentially, if you aren’t the overall best team or have the No. 1 defense in the sport, you are not going to win the national championship.
It’s unlikely Tennessee under Heupel ever has the No. 1 overall defense in the sport, but it is important to note the Vols are No. 10 in that overall FEI metric from this past season. The Vols were a borderline top-10 defense this season and it is fair and reasonable to project Tim Banks’ unit as a borderline top-10 unit in 2025. However, the Vols were 33rd in offensive FEI this past season. It’s the offense, not the defense, that will ultimately define how high Heupel and the Vols can climb this season and the next couple of seasons in Knoxville. Banks’ units have gotten better every single season at Tennessee – the Vols finished seventh in scoring defense in FBS this season. Tennessee’s defense in 2025 will give the Vols another opportunity to have a double-digit win season for the third time in the last four seasons under Heupel.
However, the looming, biggest obstacle standing in Heupel and the Vols’ way in 2025 and hitting the over on 9.5 wins is that it will require Heupel to win at least one game he has not won yet at Tennessee. For Tennessee to reach the CFP again in 2025, the Vols will have to either beat Georgia at home, or they will have to win at Alabama or Florida. It’s no coincidence that Tennessee’s two seasons where they’ve won double-digit regular season games intersected with the Vols getting the Gators and Crimson Tide inside Neyland Stadium where Heupel has lost just one time in the last three seasons. To take the over, you have to bet on Heupel getting over the hump in one of these matchups. He doesn’t have to get over them all in 2025 – he just needs to get over one of them.
It’s certainly feasible. It’s certainly plausible, but it’s certainly not something that I would project on January 21. Without Sampson to carry the Vols in the second half of big-time games in 2025, there is no avoiding the elephant in the room – Tennessee’s explosive plays in the passing game have to return. Tennessee doesn’t need to have the No. 1 scoring offense like they had in 2022 to win ten-plus games in 2025, but they can’t have the 94th-best passing offense in conference play in 2025, either. Iamaleava has to emerge and continue to build off his strong play from the second half of the Alabama game onward in 2024. Mike Matthews, Braylon Staley, Sanders, Heard and even William Satterwhite or Max Anderson all need to emerge in their respective roles. Every single one of those aforementioned Vols are former blue-chip recruits. Blue-chippers have emerged all over the defensive side of the ball for Tennessee, but for the Vols to win double-digit games in 2025 the blue-chippers all over the offensive side of the ball have to emerge, too.
LATEST EPISODE OF THE CHASE THOMAS PODCAST
Chase Thomas is the Sports Renaissance Man, Atlanta Sports Guy & VFL. On today's program, Chase is joined by fellow University of North Georgia alumni Matt Green to talk Tennessee adding former Duke starting running back Star Thomas out of the transfer portal, Mike Bobo's future as OC at Georgia, and preview the College Football Playoff National Championship game between Notre Dame and Ohio State.
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The SRM Daily Column Schedule
Each day, I write a different column over here on SRM on the Tennessee Vols all year long.
MONDAY- 48 Hours After Tennessee Vols Recap
TUESDAY- Terrific Tennessee Spotlight
WEDNESDAY- Tennessee Vols Wednesday Wonder
THURSDAY- Know The Foe Vols Game Preview
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SUNDAY- Stock Report For The Tennessee Vols
The Chase Thomas Podcast Lineup
There are a lot of different ways to stay locked in on all the Tennessee Vols podcasting coverage I’m putting out every day.
Below is my weekly podcast lineup, so you always know what’s coming down the pike each day on the program. (Note: There are always surprise special Tennessee Vols guests that pop in throughout the week as well. Some examples include Volquest’s Brent Hubbs, Tennessee CF Hunter Ensley, 99.1 The Sports Animal’s Tyler Ivens, GoVols247’s Ryan Callahan, Tony Basilio, Sports Source’s John Pennington and so many others.)
MONDAY - A Pod Divided w/ Fellow University of North Georgia alumni Matt Green
TUESDAY - Tennessee Vols Sports Guys w/ Rocky Top Insider’s Ryan Schumpert, Saturday Down South’s Ethan Stone and Omaha Production’s Jack Foster
WEDNESDAY - More Important Issues w/ Landon Raby & Caleb Mitchell
THURSDAY - A Pod Divided w/ Fellow University of North Georgia alumni Matt Green
FRIDAY - Vols Hoops Hour w/ Vol Report’s Ryan Sylvia
FRIDAY DOUBLE FEATURE - Vols Best Bets & Tennessee Baseball w/ Omaha Production’s Jack Foster
(Final Note: All of this and more information on Knoxville’s No. 1 independent Tennessee Vols podcast is available over at the official website which you can find here.)
Make it a great Tuesday, everyone.
Go Vols,
Chase