Tennessee vs. South Carolina: If it ain't broke don't fix it
Why the Gamecocks figure to have a similar Saturday against the Vols that the Missouri Tigers just had.
Welcome to the Vols Beat section here at SRM, where subscribers will get daily pieces from me on the Tennessee Volunteers. Subscribe to this section of the newsletter if you want to stay up-to-date on all things Tennessee football, basketball and baseball.
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.
A huge difference between college football and the pros is the opportunity for struggling teams in the pros to address personnel issues midway through the regular season via the trade market, the waiver wire or an albeit limited free agent pool. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been decimated in the secondary due to injuries through four weeks of the NFL season, so they signed former Super Bowl champion Richard Sherman to stop the bleeding. The Missouri Tigers have been gashed on the ground all season, however, unlike in the NFL, defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has to make the most of what he has at his disposal. The Tennessee Volunteers knew this would continue to be the case, so they rushed for 458 yards that resulted in a dominant 62-24 victory.
The South Carolina Gamecocks head to Knoxville with the understandable fear that Shane Beamer’s team will suffer a similar fate on Saturday afternoon. This is not to say Clayton White’s defense is playing at a similar level to the Missouri Tigers through five weeks. This is not the case.
The Gamecocks’ defense is averaging close to three forced turnovers a game, but Hendon Hooker has thrown 10 touchdown passes to just a single interception to this point. Jaylon Foster has four interceptions this season, but if the head coach Josh Heupel calls an identical game to what he called versus Mizzou, it makes you wonder how much of an impact a player like Foster can realistically have if the opportunities are not there.
There is a lot to like about the Gamecocks’ defense as a collective unit, but there are holes, and Heupel has now proven himself to be a cerebral play-caller when he knows the defense does not have a counter to what he’s calling. The Volunteers did not punt against the Tigers on Saturday. The Gamecocks may very well be 25 in defense, but they are 88th in first down rate, per BCF Toys. This tells us the Gamecocks are vulnerable against the Vols.
Not only are the Gamecocks vulnerable to giving up sustained drives by the Vols on Saturday, but the team also sits at 68th in rushing defense, per CFB Stats. Even more alarming? The Gamecocks are 89th in rushing yards per carry allowed. (Note: Missouri is No. 129 out of 130 on this list. The only team with a worse rushing defense through five weeks? That’s right, our old friend Butch Jones and Arkansas State.)
Perhaps if the Gamecocks’ offense was more inspiring you could talk yourself into South Carolina here a bit more. Instead, Luke Doty has been anything but the last few weeks. Kevin Harris is fine, but the Vols’ shut down a better player in Tyler Badie. Pittsburgh and Florida beat the Volunteers in vastly different ways, but Kenny Pickett and Emory Jones, respectively, diced the Vols heavily through the air or on the ground. It took 41 for the Panthers to take down the Vols in Neyland -- with Joe Milton early, remember -- so it is reasonable to suspect with this offense that the Gamecocks will need to hit a number close to that to steal a win here.
This game is also far more important for the Vols than it is for the Gamecocks. South Carolina is not going bowling this year. It’s going to take some time to right the ship in Columbia for Beamer. The Vols, though, are marching towards six wins. They need this game, as they have Ole Miss, Alabama, Kentucky and Georgia to follow South Carolina. Heupel’s team blows this, and it is the difference between .500 and a losing season. A storm is coming over the next few weeks in Knoxville, so it should be interesting to see how focused the Vols come out to ensure this team reaches a bowl game this December. The Gamecocks, like the Tigers, match up quite poorly with the Vols, so I expect Tennessee to win and easily cover that -10.5 spread.
Have a Tennessee question or comment or tip for me? Email me at chasethomaspodcast[at]gmail.com
