Is Texas Tech Like Ohio State Now in This Very Specific Way?
The Red Raiders and Buckeyes won a lot of games last year. It's fair to assume that trend continues.
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Texas Tech football and Ohio State football have something in common right now. For the latter, winning lots of regular-season games has been the standard. The Buckeyes have lost more than one conference game just once since the start of the 2012 season. Since 2005, Ohio State has failed to win double-digit games twice. Of those two seasons, one was the COVID-shortened season. Funny enough, the one year the Buckeyes lost more than one Big Ten game for the first time in 2011, head football coach Ryan Day’s football team won the national championship. Last year, Ohio State went 8-0 vs. Big Ten teams, and they won by two or more scores in every single game. Last year, Texas Tech went 8-1 vs. Big 12 teams, and they won by two or more scores in every victory. Red Raiders fans are now in a shared place with Buckeyes fans when it comes to the college football regular season.
Could you imagine telling college football fans in 2006 that Texas Tech was on a path to being just as consistently dominant in their conference as Ohio State has been in the Big Ten? If you take a look at the 2026 college football win total projections, you will find that Texas Tech’s projected win total sits at 11.5, which is what it has felt like at Ohio State for years and years. (Although the Buckeyes have an eyebrow-raising 9.5 win total this year. Traveling to Austin for your season opener can have that kind of effect, I suppose.) Texas Tech’s one blemish in conference play last year came on the road in Tempe against the Arizona State Sun Devils. This year, they get Kenny Dillingham’s team at home. BYU isn’t on their schedule next season. It would be a huge upset for the Red Raiders not to be favored in every game they play this upcoming season.
It certainly seems like this is the new standard for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders were ranked No. 1 by On3 in their team transfer portal rankings last year. They were ranked No. 2 this latest cycle. Their big get last cycle was former Stanford edge David Bailey, and he had a fantastic lone season in Lubbock and projects to be a top-10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. This cycle, you could argue it’s former Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby. You could argue it’s former Wake Forest defensive tackle Mateen Ibirogba or former Kansas State linebacker Justin Romine. Only time will tell, but the Red Raiders are rolling in a way similar to the Buckeyes, where it would be jarring to see Texas Tech not win double-digit games at the end of the season. Texas Tech fans are starting to experience the regular season like Ohio State fans have experienced it for decades now, where you expect to win just about every regular-season game you play. You know your team has more talent, more years than not, in your conference.
How soon before SEC fans start to view Texas Tech the way they have viewed Ohio State for years and years? The strength-of-schedule conversation isn’t going anywhere, especially with the SEC going to nine conference games this year. If Texas Tech finishes a perfect 12-0 this season and becomes a yearly lock to make the College Football Playoff, how does that change the conversation around them? In my 34 years on this planet, the Red Raiders have always seemed like one of the fun underdogs in the sport. That’s not who they are anymore, though. While it is impossible to know for sure how they’d fare in the SEC, the same as with Ohio State, it is going to be interesting to see how they are viewed by fanbases in SEC Country, particularly if they don’t make a deep run in the CFP sooner rather than later.
If you’re an Arkansas football fan, you’re a bit jealous, right? You don’t have to squint too hard to envision an alternate world where you’re doing what Texas Tech is doing in the Big 12. A perfect world for Razorbacks fans is one where they remain in the SEC for every sport except football, right? The Hawgs have never won the SEC and don’t look to be particularly close to winning it in the not-too-distant future. A far more appealing future would be battling the Red Raiders atop the Big 12 every year and going to the CFP more years than not, right? Texas Tech is the kind of powerhouse in the Big 12 that Arkansas could be if it made the switch, right?
For Ohio State fans, the high floor must be the best part of watching your beloved Buckeyes over the years, right? In the FBS, you can count on one hand the schools that have similar year-over-year floors to Day’s team. It includes Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs. It used to include Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide. It seems to include Marcus Freeman’s Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks. Tennessee fans have enjoyed the consistent high floors that Josh Heupel has created in Big Orange Country over the last half-decade.
This is a new world for Red Raiders fans, where they’re the school with the highest floor in their Power 4 conference more years than not. They are now a school where it’s expected that they win double-digit games every year. It’s a school where a 9-3 finish is a colossal failure. The Buckeyes have lived in this world for a long time, but look out, the Red Raiders are here now, too.