Is Virginia Or Virginia Tech The Better Bet In 2026?
There are lots of reasons for optimism for both football programs heading into next season.
The Virginia Cavaliers won 11 football games last year, the most wins in a season in the school’s history. After winning just six games total in his first two seasons at Virginia, head football coach Tony Elliott led a Virginia team that won 5 games the previous season to 11 games the following season, and one win away from a trip to the school’s first-ever College Football Playoff. Pretty, pretty good for Elliott and his staff. As good as Bronco Mendenhall and Al Groh were at different points during their time at Virginia, neither ever crossed the double-digit win threshold that Elliot did in Year 4. Now the question is whether or not Elliott can stack eight-plus win seasons in a row like Mendenhall and Groh were able to do?
Enter in-state conference rival Virginia Tech and James Franklin.
The Hokies received a major jolt this offseason when the school hired former Penn State and Vanderbilt head football coach James Franklin. The Cavaliers won 11 games last season, and the Hokies haven’t won 11 games in 15 years. Franklin won 11 games six times during his tenure at Penn State. In my lifetime, the Hokies have finished the season with double-digit wins 14 times. What Elliott did at Virginia in 2025 was what so many college football fans around my age grew up routinely expecting out of Virginia Tech year after year. What Elliott accomplished at Virginia in 2025 was what every Penn State fan expected out of Franklin every season in Happy Valley. Something has to give in 2026 and beyond, though, as the Cavaliers and the Hokies have never won double-digit games in the same season. With Elliott and Franklin now leading these two rival in-state programs, combined with the ACC's openness outside of Miami, it has never felt more possible.
But there are a lot of questions for Elliott’s Cavaliers in Year 5 and Franklin’s Hokies in Year 1. It starts at quarterback, where Virginia has to replace Chandler Morris with either Pittsburgh transfer Eli Holstein or Missouri and Penn State transfer Beau Pribula, and where Virginia Tech has to replace Kyron Drones with either Penn State transfer Ethan Grunkemeyer or North Carolina transfer Bryce Baker. If Pribula beats out Holstein and Grunkemeyer beats out Baker, both schools will be led by former Penn State backup quarterbacks this fall. However, the experience in the Cavaliers’ room is very different than the experience in the Hokies’ room. With Elliott’s team, he won 11 games last season and is trying to keep the momentum going with a veteran quarterback like Pribula or Holstein. With Franklin’s team, he is trying to build momentum with an unproven but talented former blue-chip recruit like Grunkemeyer or Baker.
It’s all incredibly fascinating at quarterback for the Cavaliers and Hokies in 2026.
Even with the two rival in-state schools coming off very different seasons, their projected win totals are separated by only one game in next season, per FanDuel. Virginia’s projected win total sits at 7.5 while Virginia Tech’s sits at 6.5. It’s not inconceivable that when these two schools meet on November 28th in Blacksburg, the Cavaliers and the Hokies will have identical records. Wouldn’t it be something for the first year of Elliott versus Franklin rivalry to feature those kinds of stakes, where the winner in Blacksburg finishes the regular season with the better record?
Elliott broke through in Charlottesville in Year 4, where he doubled his win total from 5 to 11. In an open ACC outside of Miami, it will be fascinating to see how the former longtime Clemson assistant builds off last season’s rousing success. Back-to-back double-digit win seasons are obviously the goal, but with the potential drop-off at quarterback from Morris to either Pribula or Holstein, 8-4 would be a very nice follow-up to last season’s magic, right? In a lot of ways, it seemed like the 2025 ACC Coach of the Year overachieved with his group last year. The Cavaliers were 53rd in OFEI, per BCFToys. They were seventh in scoring offense in the ACC. They weren’t elite at throwing the football, and they weren’t elite at running the football. The best numbers were found on the defensive side of the ball, where Virginia and CFP runner-up Miami were the only two teams to allow fewer than 20 points per game in the ACC last season. It’s fair to be concerned about QB1 at Virginia, but to win eight or more games in 2026, a lot of it might depend on whether or not the Cavaliers’ defense is one of the premier units in the conference once again.
Both Elliott and Franklin were offensive assistant coaches before they were head coaches. However, the in-state battle between Virginia defensive coordinator John Rudzinski and Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Brent Pry will be just as intriguing. The two ACC schools that finished No. 1 and No. 2 in scoring defense in the conference last season won double-digit games. Virginia Tech’s best finish since 2020 was 5th in 2021. Under Franklin in Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions were 8th nationally in scoring defense in 2024. They were third the year prior. They were 9th the year before that. It was the defense over the last several years at Penn State that raised the school’s floor so consistently year over year.
Yes, the offense and quarterback matters at Virginia and Virginia Tech this year and beyond, but I suspect who wins more games between the two head coaches will have a lot more to do with their scoring defense than with their scoring offense.
I don’t know how it will all play out for Elliott and Franklin in Charlottesville and Blacksburg, respectively, but I do know it will be quite enjoyable to see how it all unfolds. Does Elliott keep things on track at Virginia in Year 5? Does Franklin come in and win immediately, even with a far more daunting schedule, in Year 1? Does Pribula or Holstein become a cool Bounce Back Season story? Does Grunkemeyer flash as a future first-round talent in the NFL Draft? I don’t know, but I do know the Virginia vs. Virginia Tech game in late November will be a must-watch event for the first time in a long time, and that’s a great thing for fans of both schools and college football fans as a whole.